The US economic trend, after strengthening in late-October through mid-November, has pulled back from its recent highs in the last several weeks, based on a markets-based profile of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at 13.0% on Tuesday, Dec. 10, a level that still suggests that business cycle risk remains low. The current 13.0% value is well above the lowest reading for the year to date—7.5% in mid-September—and comfortably above the 0% danger zone. If MMRI falls under 0%, that would be a sign that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply a bias for economic growth.