Daily Archives: December 5, 2013

Today’s Upbeat Macro Reports Probably Overstate Growth Prospects

This morning’s economic updates for the US paint an encouraging profile, but it may be a bit misleading. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised second-quarter GDP up by a hefty degree, estimating that the nation’s output of goods and services increased 3.6% for the three months through September (seasonally adjusted annualized real rate). That’s substantially higher than the 2.8% gain in the advance estimate for Q3.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures: October 2013 Preview

US personal consumption spending for October is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. Today’s average projection is slightly above the previously reported 0.2% increase for September. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average 0.3% forecast for October matches the projections in three surveys of economists.

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US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: November 2013 Preview

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 180,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s November update from the Labor Department, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric point forecast. The projected gain is substantially below the previously reported increase of 212,000 for October. Meanwhile, The Capital Spectator’s average November projection falls between a pair of relatively wide-ranging consensus forecasts, based on surveys of economists.

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