Daily Archives: Jun 14, 2019 at 07:40 am EDT

Simulating Survey-Based Consensus Forecasts With Econometrics

Surveying economists for their projections on a variety of economic and financial indicators and aggregating the results has wide appeal, and for good reason. The wisdom of the crowd, such as it is, tends to be more reliable through time compared with any one forecaster. But there are challenges with standard consensus forecasts—challenges that can minimized if not solved with econometric-based applications.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 14 June 2019

US Secretary of State blames Iran for attacks on tankers: CNN
Iran says it’s not responsible for tanker attacks: Reuters
IEA predicts global oil demand will fall to lowest level in years: CNBC
Trump and Warren: a pair of economic populists: Bloomberg
China’s mfg growth rate slowed to 17-year low in May: Reuters
Gold rises to 14-month high: WSJ
US mfg job growth accelerated in first 2 yrs of Trump admin: EIG
Import prices for US fell in May–biggest decline in five months: Reuters
US jobless claims rose 1.4% last week vs. year-ago level: