Daily Archives: Jun 19, 2019 at 07:19 am EDT

US Business Cycle Risk Report | 19 June 2019

US economic growth has slowed recently and several key economic indicators are painting a mixed profile about the near-term outlook. The modestly wobbly numbers of late have convinced some analysts to warn that a recession is near. Perhaps, but the data overall still align with a moderate expansion and an econometric projection of the macro trend (via a broad set of indicators listed below) continues to anticipate a low probability of a downturn through July.
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Macro Briefing: 19 June 2019

Trump says Europe is unfairly boosting its economy: NY Times
Asian markets rise on Wed in anticipation of US-China trade deal: MW
Blackstone’s Schwarzman: Trump-Xi meeting unlikely to lead to trade deal: CNBC
Fed considers the case for a rate cut for today’s policy announcement: WSJ
The Fed is becoming politicized: Bloomberg
Firms may leave Hong Kong due to political uncertainty: CNBC
US housing starts fell 4.7% in May for year-over-year comparison: