Is the US economy at risk of a double-dip recession? The threat is rising, according to the latest update of the ADS Index, a real-time tracker of business conditions published by the Philadelphia Fed. This benchmark is a valuable metric for monitoring recession risk, but its attempt to be timely also leaves it vulnerable to noisy volatility. Nonetheless, the latest ADS slide in the current climate bears watching as the pandemic continues to roil America in the new year.

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* Growing list of Republicans will support today’s vote on impeaching Trump
* Pence rejects effort to oust Trump with 25th amendment
* US to require proof of negative Covid-19 tests for international visitors
* China’s Covid-19 cases rise the most in over five months
* Brazil data shows China coronavirus vaccine is 50.4% effective
* Global shortage of semiconductors squeezes auto production
* US job openings fell less than expected in November but still trending down
* US small business optimism index fell sharply in December:

The world is still battling a pandemic, the US government is in turmoil and there’s no shortage of other events lurking on the global stage that could cause trouble for asset markets. Should we add in rising interest rates to the list of worries?

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* House will vote today on removing Trump with 25th amendment
* House plans Trump impeachment vote for Wednesday
* Acting Homeland Security Secretary quits as FBI warns of armed protests
* Secretary of State Pompeo puts Cuba on terrorism sponsor list
* Atlanta Fed President sees possible rate hike coming sooner than expected
* China’s rebounding economy is strengthening its currency
* Double-dip recession risk is stalking Europe
* Bitcoin’s dramatic correction is healthy, say analysts
* Consumer year-ahead inflation expectations remain unchanged in December
* 10-year Treasury yield continues to tick higher, rising to 1.15%:

Shares in emerging markets topped last week’s gains for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange traded funds as of Friday’s close  (Jan. 8). Equities in developed markets ex-US were a close second-place weekly performer.

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* House set for new impeachment vote on Trump
* Authorities prepare for more protests and possible violence in Washington
* Wall Street strategists anticipate reflation momentum picking up
* Will 2021 be a record year for job growth in the US?
* Philly Fed’s ADS Index moves close to signaling US economic contraction
* US payrolls declined in December–first monthly slide in 8 months
* US 10-year Treausury yield rises to 1.13%–highest since March:

● Driven: The Race to Create the Autonomous Car
Alex Davies
Review via Berkeleyside
It may be a stretch to call Davies’ new book The Right Stuff for the Age of the Autonomous Vehicle, but it shares some of Tom Wolfe’s narrative exuberance, pioneer spirit and eye for the telling detail. Davies chronicles the tech industry’s fascination with self-driving vehicles, from their origins in three “Grand Challenges” sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) to the attempts by Google, Uber and the city of Detroit to exploit the innovative technology for the auto-buying public.

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In this issue:

• The stock market shrugs off Capitol chaos
• A bullish start for strategy benchmarks in the new year
• Diverging paths for managed risk strategies

Is Insurrection Bullish? Let’s just say that judging by the week just ended, the stock market isn’t easily shaken by such distractions as riots in the US Capitol or political turmoil in Washington.

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President Donald Trump will leave the White House on Jan. 20, perhaps sooner if growing efforts to unseat him in the remaining days of his presidency come to fruition. Whatever happens over the next two weeks, the economic and social forces that helped elect Trump aren’t going away. In fact, there’s a distinct possibility that those forces will strengthen and broaden in the months and years ahead. In turn, political and economic uncertainty may increase, in ways that have yet to be fully understood or recognized.

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* Trump says he will prepare for Biden administration to take power
* Democrats moving toward second Trump impeachment
* Calls increase for Trump’s resignation after Capitol chaos
* US foes eye opportunity to exploit US political chaos
* US envoy to UN to visit Taiwan, a trip that will anger China
* Sharp slowdown expected for today’s December US payrolls report
* US trade deficit reached a 14-year high in November
* Tesla’s Elon Musk becomes world’s richest person
* Eurozone unemployment unexpectedly ticked down to 8.3% in November
* US ISM Services PMI edged up in Dec, reflecting solid rate of expansion
* US jobless claims remained unusually high last week