The assault of the US Capitol on Wednesday failed, allowing Congress to certify Joe Biden’s election victory after a harrowing day in Washington. But the challenges for the US economy endure.
Monthly Archives: January 2021
Macro Briefing: 7 January 2021
* Congress certifies Biden’s election win after assault of US Capitol
* Trump pledges ‘orderly’ transition after riot on Capitol Hill
* Democrats capture Georgia’s Senate seats and win control of US Senate
* US unprepared for genetic variations of the coronavirus, experts warn
* Global economic expansion remained ‘solid’ at 2020’s close, survey data shows
* Eurozone economic confidence strengthened in December
* 10-year Treasury yield rose 1% in November
* US services sector growth slips to slowest pace in three months in December
* US private payrolls declined in Dec — first monthly setback since April:
Is A Weak US Dollar A Key Macro Theme For 2021?
The world’s reserve currency has been weakening since May and recent trending behavior suggests the slide has room to run and so it’s time for a short recap of the implications and the outlook for what could be a major driver of investment results in 2021.
Macro Briefing: 6 January 2021
* Democrats appear to win Georgia runoff elections and take control of Senate
* Congress expected to certify Biden’s win today
* VP Pence isn’t expected to try to block Biden’s election certification today
* Trump bars transactions with eight Chinese phone apps
* Second US stimulus payments has reached 2/3 of households’ bank accounts
* Hong Kong police arrest 53 pro-democracy lawmakers and activists
* Bitcoin tops $35,000–another record high
* GMO’s Jeremy Grantham warns of ‘epic bubble risk’
* US Treasury 10-year yield reaches 1% in overnight trading–highest since March
* China services sector expanded at slower pace in December via survey data
* US manufacturing activity accelerated to 2-1/2-year high in December:
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 5 January 2021
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) for the long run continued to tick higher in December. Today’s revised estimate rose to an annualized 5.5%, based on current data. That’s up from last month’s 5.3% projection. These forecasts represent long-run outlooks for the index’s performance over the “risk-free” rate via a risk-based model (details below).
Macro Briefing: 5 January 2021
* US Senate control hangs in the balance in today’s Georgia runoff election
* South Korea tanker diverted to Iran by Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops
* Chicago Fed president: monetary policy will be accomodative ‘for a long time’
* NYSE halts delisting of Chinese telecom companies
* Retail, jobless data suggest German economy remains resilient during pandemic
* UK recession threat deepens as new pandemic lockdown unfolds
* Global mfg growth held near decade highs in Dec, according to PMI survey data
* US construction spending rose to record high in November
* US mfg recovery from pandemic endured in December via PMI survey data:
Major Asset Classes | December 2020 | Performance Review
The year just passed left deep scars on humanity and the global economy, but there were few signs of trouble in the 2020 returns for the major asset classes. With the exception of broadly defined commodities and US and foreign property shares, global markets posted solid gains last year.
Continue reading
Macro Briefing: 4 January 2021
* Trump, in phone call, urges Georgia officials to overturn election results
* US officials consider half doses of vaccine to accelerate rollout
* Economists expect rough Q4 data for US followed by 2021 rebound
* Pelosi re-elected as House Speaker
* Survey: US political divide is biggest risk on world stage in 2021
* Smaller cryptocurrencies are rising after Bitcoin’s surge
* Eurozone manufacturing growth strengthened in December
* UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 3-year high in December
* US Treasury inflation forecasts start 2021 trading at two-year-plus highs:
Best Of Books Bits 2020: Part II
Welcome to the New Year — and the sequel to last week’s first installment of notable titles that appeared in The Capital Spectator’s weekly Book Bits column in 2020. Happy reading!
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 1 Jan 2021
In this issue:
- Stock In Asia Ex-Japan Shine In 2020
- Beta Risk Provided Strong Tailwinds For Portfolio Strategies In 2020
- A Red-Hot Year For Our Managed Volatility Strategy But Minimum Vol Stumbled
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Led 2020 Returns: If you held a healthy share of equities across Asia excluding Japan in your investment strategy last year, congratulate yourself. This slice of global asset classes not only posted the strongest return this week; Asia ex-Japan also outperformed the rest of the field for our list of proxy ETFs representing the major asset classes on a global basis.