The strategy of holding stocks with the highest beta risk have stumbled recently, but remain comfortably in the lead year to date for US equity factors, based on a set of exchange traded funds.

Continue reading →

* Dems unveil $3.5 trillion budget as infrastructure bill closer to Senate approval
* Two Fed officials suggest tapering and rate hike are near
* Delta variant of Covid-19 strains hospitals across US
* Covid outbreak due to Delta variant raises risks for China’s economy
* German investor sentiment weakens for third month in a row in August
* Unfilled job openings rose to another record high in June
* US job openings in June increased to 10.1 million–a series high:

Shares in developed markets ex-US topped returns for the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. Overall, it was a mixed week with a wide range of gains and losses.

Continue reading →

* Will Biden reappoint Fed Chair Powell? Probably, an economist reasons
* UN climate panel warns climate change is ‘code red for humanity’
* Infrastructure bill on track to pass in Senate, perhaps as early as Monday
* Infrastructure bill’s economic impact will be modest, economists predict
* Pandemic won’t soon end, predicts former WHO epidemiologist
* Cash is arguably the least worst option for savers
* US payrolls rose in July at fastest pace in nearly a year
* Is last week’s jump in the 10yr-3mo Treasury yield spread the start of a reversal?

It was a good week for our three proprietary strategies—in absolute terms. On a relative basis, however, passive beta continues to dominate the horse race.

continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist

● Workquake: Embracing the Aftershocks of COVID-19 to Create a Better Model of Working
Steve Cadigan
Review via BlueInk Review
Corporate America has found it difficult to get people back to work after the pandemic. But talent shortages, especially in fields like tech that drive the economy, were a problem even before the pandemic. Steve Cadigan’s compelling book Workquake explains why.
Cadigan posits that the pace of technological change makes employees’ skills obsolete in less than five years, particularly in fields that depend on knowledge-work. Future skill-sets are so uncertain that older employment models that emphasized regularity and employee retention are no longer relevant.

Continue reading →

• US small cap stocks continue to rebound
• Bonds take a hit as US payrolls show surprising strength
• Most of our portfolio strategy benchmarks posted gains this week

Is the small cap rally back on track? Too soon to say, but the trend continues to look encouraging, at least relative to the downside bias in the month through mid-July.

continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist

The directional bias for US economic activity continues to skew slightly negative, based on CapitalSpectator.com’s Macro Trend Index (MTI). Although the economy is still expanding at a solid pace, MTI still indicates that a downside bias persists for the directional trend. The negative tilt, however, is fractional and so the overall signal remains in neutral terrain.

Continue reading →

* Pandemic puts tens of millions around the world on the brink of famine
* Delta variant threatens the US labor market rebound
* Infrastructure bill estimated to add $256 billion to US deficit
* Biden wants half of US cars sold by 2030 to be electric or hybrid
* Bond rates are falling and yield curves are flattening around the world
* Will Fed plans for a digital currency eventually displace crypto?
* US trade deficit widened to a record in June
* US jobless claims fell last week, close to pandemic low:

In an upcoming issue, we’ll be adding a proxy for mean-reversion potential to the lineup of risk metrics. Here’s a preview.

continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist