Daily Archives: Nov 10, 2021 at 07:37 am EST

Outlier Risk, Part II

In the first article in this series we looked at a basic technique for identifying outliers – extreme data points – in a time series. The tool of choice: slicing the numbers into quartiles and using the interquartile range (IQR) to define “normal.” It’s a useful starting point, but it may not always suffice. Fortunately, there are alternative methodologies that can be run for additional perspective. For comparison, let’s focus on one and review how outlier risk stacks up using Z-scores.

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Macro Briefing: 10 November 2021

* St. Louis Fed President James Bullard predicts two rate hikes in 2022
* General Electric announces it will split into three companies
* American households are carrying record amounts of debt
* China’s producer-price inflation surged to a 26-year high in October
* Economic advisers to the German government cut growth forecast
* Fed Gov Brainard interviewed at White House as possible replacement for Powell
* 30-year US Treasury yield falls to 1.79%, lowest since July
* US small business sentiment fell in October, lowest since March
* US producer-price inflation held steady at 8.6% y-o-y, highest since 2010: