Monthly Archives: October 2021

Book Bits: 30 October 2021

Sunbelt Blues: The Failure of American Housing
Andrew Ross
Essay by author via Orlando Sentinel
The affordable housing crisis is about to become an emergency. According to a recent Zillow forecast, by December, the typical renter in the U.S. will be paying landlords more than 30% of their pretax income. That’s the official threshold for “housing-cost burdened.”
With housing prices and rents still climbing, and eviction moratoriums largely ended, millions of these tenants are at risk of becoming homeless.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 29 October 2021

* Biden arrives in Europe for COP26 climate summit
* Dems’ infrastructure spending package still in limbo as October comes to a close
* Apple and Amazon earnings disappoint
* Treasury Sec. Yellen: spending bills will be anti-inflationary by lowering key costs
* Eurozone inflation rises above 4%, creating more pressure for rate hike
* US jobless claims fell again last week, reach new pandemic low
* Market starting to price in Fed rate hikes for 2022
* Pending home sales for US post surprising drop for September
* US GDP growth slowed to 2% in Q3–smallest gain since expansion started:

Macro Briefing: 28 October 2021

* Quick deal on Dem’s social-spending agenda falls apart
* US reportedly training troops in Taiwan
* Top US general says China’s hypersonic weapons test is “very concerncing”
* One-third of China’s property developers will struggle to repay debts
* Chip shortage takes toll on profits at GM and Ford
* US economic growth projected to slow in Q3, but a rebound is expected
* US trade deficit for goods surged in September as exports fell
* New US orders for durable goods fell in September at headline level:

Macro Briefing: 27 October 2021

* Democrats unveil plan for 15% minimum corporate tax
* Democrats are considering a novel capital-gains tax on billionaires
* Microsoft and Alphabet beat expectations for revenue growth
* US is now the leader in bitcoin mining after China crackdown
* Treasury market’s 5-year inflation forecast rises to 2.99% for the first time
* Hot US housing market may be starting to cool, based on S&P Case-Shiller Index
* New home sales rebounded to six-month high in September
* US Consumer Confidence rises in October, following three months of decline:

Outlier Risk, Part I

Would you know an outlier if you saw one? They’re everywhere and easy to spot, or so one can argue. But casual observation is one thing and shouldn’t be confused with robust statistical definitions.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 26 October 2021

* Biden’s billionaire tax runs into criticism as too cumbersome
* Markets increasingly pricing in risk that inflation isn’t transitory
* Blackstone’s Schwarzman says energy shortages could cause social unrest.
* Ark Invest’s Cathy Wood says falling money velocity will keep inflation in check
* Apple’s new privacy rules take a bite out of Facebook’s ad growth
* Tesla’s market cap reaches $1 trillion as Hertz orders 100,000 Teslas
* Dallas Fed Mfg Index: sector growth slows in October as “costs soar”
* US economic growth continued to slow in September via Chicago Fed index: