For a second week in a row, the major asset classes rallied, with a notable exception: stocks in emerging markets. Otherwise, risk assets continued to recover in the trading week through Friday, Oct. 28, based on a set of ETFs.
Monthly Archives: October 2022
Macro Briefing: 31 October 2022
* Lula reclaims Brazil’s presidency and beats Bolsonaro in narrow victory
* Eurozone inflation reaches new record high as economy slows in Q3
* Russia suspends grain deal that allowed Ukraine exports
* Goldman Sachs expects Fed rate hikes will peak at 5% in March
* China manufacturing and services sectors contract in October
* No end in sight for China zero-Covid policy
* Germany’s economic link to China in focus as chancellor heads to Beijing
* US consumer spending rose in September despite inflation’s bite
* Pending home sales in US fell fell further than expected in September:
Book Bits: 29 October 2022
Susan L. Shirk
Quote from author via Time.com
“In the past, everyone took for granted that the Chinese leadership is going to make the adjustments it needs to make to keep its economy humming,” says Susan Shirk, a Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs under Bill Clinton, and author of Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise. “But now they’re overreaching and harming their own economic development.”
US Soft Landing Possible, Says Former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder
Can the Federal Reserve tame inflation with more rate hikes without pushing the US into recession? It’s the critical macro question these days and everyone has an opinion, including a former vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Alan Blinder, who says threading this policy needle is possible.
Macro Briefing: 28 October 2022
* European Central Bank hikes interest rates by 75 basis points
* German economy grows slightly in Q3, defies forecasts of recession
* Fossil-fuel demand may peak in a few years, IEA advises
* Elon Musk takes control of Twitter and fires top executives
* Amazon shares tumble on weak Q4 earnings outlook
* Durable goods orders in US rose in September but momentum is fading
* US jobless claims edged up last week but remain near historically low levels
* US economy recovers in Q3, posting solid 2.6% increase after first-half decline:
US Covid-19 Risk Is Relatively Low. Will That Change This Winter?
Last year’s spike in Covid-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations has faded from the public’s focus, and for an obvious reason. The numbers have fallen and worries about other issues – inflation, the economy, energy supplies, next week’s elections, to name a few – are now front and center. But with the winter approaching, is a rebound in pandemic troubles lurking?
Macro Briefing: 27 October 2022
* US mortgage interest rates rise to 7.16%, highest since 2001
* Ukraine war will accelerate shift to cleaner energy sources, IEA forecasts
* Oil giant Shell set to hike dividend after quarterly profit surges
* Europe now has glut of natural gas, sending prices lower
* American middle class facing biggest decline to its wealth in a generation
* New US home sales fell 11% in September after sharp rise in mortgage rates
* US broad money supply continues to slide in real terms in September:
Energy Stocks Are Rallying… Again
After a stellar first half in 2022, the energy sector stumbled, inspiring some analysts to forecast that the bull run was over. But that view is looking premature as Big Oil shares rally anew.
Macro Briefing: 26 October 2022
* The energy future the West wants is magical thinking
* Natural gas and electricity prices in Europe plunge from summer peaks
* Health insurance inflation, a key CPI input, is expected to drop sharply
* Microsoft reports profit slide amid slowdown in personal computing industry
* Hydropower, world’s biggest source of clean energy, is evaporating fast
* Atlanta Fed Mfg Index continues to report weak conditions in October
* US consumer confidence eases in October after gaining for two months
* US home prices decelerate at rapid rate in August:
US Economy Is Set To Rebound In Thursday’s Q3 GDP Report
Economic activity for the US for the third quarter is on track to recover in this week’s initial estimate from the government, based on the median for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The rebound is set to fade in Q4, however, according to early projections and so any celebrations over this week’s results may be short-lived.