Assessing US recession risk isn’t getting any easier, but when it comes to cutting through the noise I continue to rely on combining models for the single-best tool in the toolkit. To paraphrase Churchill, this is usually the least-worst way to evaluate the odds that an NBER-defined downturn is near or has already started.
Daily Archives: April 5, 2023
Macro Briefing: 5 April 2023
* Cleveland Fed President reaffirms central bank’s resolve to tame inflation and…
* Mester says Fed should raise and hold its target rate above 5%
* Eurozone economy expands at strongest pace since May 2022: PMI survey data
* Banking crisis not over yet, says JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon
* Gold rises well above $2000 an ounce, near an all-time high
* Walmart lays off 2,000 workers at warehouses that fulfill website orders
* US job openings in February fall below 10 million for first time in 2 years:
