Estimating US economic activity for the third quarter remains a guessing game. The Bureau of Economic Analysis was scheduled to publish its initial estimate yesterday, Oct. 30, but the government shutdown has delayed the report, along with other crucial data releases. Private-sector numbers are filling in some of the blank spots, but uncertainty is on the rise about the economy. On the bright side, using the dwindling set of updated numbers available for nowcasting Q3 still suggests that the output probably rose at a solid pace.
Daily Archives: October 31, 2025
Macro Briefing: 31 October 2025
US 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, trading at at 4.10% on Thursday, marking the highest close in more than three weeks. “The rise in Treasury yields is really the response to the generally hawkish message that I think Powell very intentionally portrayed,” said Matt Bush, US economist at Guggenheim Investmentsat, referencing the Federal Reserve chairman’s comments on Wednesday that raise doubts about another rate cut in December.
