The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the relatively wide spread will likely narrow in the months ahead.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 13 July 2023
* Will new US investment restrictions on China derail latest diplomatic outreach?
* China exports fell the most in three years in June
* IEA cuts global oil demand forecast for 2023
* US economic activity increased slightly since late May: Fed Beige Book
* Business inflation expectations unchanged at 2.8% in July: Atlanta Fed survey
* Elon Must announces new company focused on artificial intelligence
* US junk bond market shrinks sharply after rate hikes
* “Inflation story is history,” predicts Johns Hopkins University Steve Hanke
* US consumer inflation slows to softest pace in more than two years:
Macro Briefing: 12 July 2023
* More rate hikes expected no matter what today’s US inflation data reveals
* Possible UPS strike would be “disruptive” for US economy
* Auto industry prepares for contentious talks with unions
* Demand for lithium and other critical minerals is surging, IEA says
* Housing market may be near inflection point as prices look set to spike
* Variations for measuring inflation stir debate on which metrics are best
* World expected to consume more oil than it produces in 2023
* US Dollar Index trades near lowest level in over a year:
US Recession Risk Is Still Low, Defying Recent Forecasts
New York Fed President John Williams says “I don’t have a recession in my forecast.” Neither does CapitalSpectator.com. That’s not blind adherence to a central banker’s prognostications. Rather, the view on these pages is based on the data. Not a single indicator, but a broad sweep of the numbers.
Macro Briefing: 11 July 2023
* Sweden receives greenlight to join NATO after Turkey gives approval
* Fed officials say higher interest rates still needed to tame inflation
* Is China’s deflation risk a threat to world economy?
* German business sentiment weakens more than expected in July
* China’s economic troubles are boosting other Asian markets
* Fed Vice Chair Barr proposes stricter capital regulations on banks
* Major stock indices set “traps” for investors
* Should emerging markets be in your portfolio? “Maybe, but handle with care”:
US Stocks Continue To Lead Major Asset Classes In 2023
American shares eased last week, but the US stock market remains the clear leader for the major asset classes this year, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Friday’s close (July 7).
Macro Briefing: 10 July 2023
* Joe Biden arrives in UK ahead of this week’s NATO summit in Lithuania
* Yellen says China talks ‘productive’ after meeting in Beijing
* This week’s US inflation report will bring new clues for Fed rate hike outlook
* China on brink of deflation
* US banks set to report biggest loan losses since pandemic
* Don’t rule a US recession out just yet, says Treasury Sec. Yellen
* US private-sector hiring in June eases to slowest pace in 2-1/2 years:
Book Bits: 8 July 2023
Richard Harris
Summary via publisher (Simon & Schuster)
In this ultimate armchair adventure, Harry takes us into the lives of other ‘risk-takers’, to find out why they do what they do. We meet people adventuring from the highest skies to the deepest oceans – BASE jumpers, drag racers, snipers and surfers – including climber Alex Honnold (from the movie Free Solo), sailor Jessica Watson, film director and deep-sea diver James Cameron. Each gripping story is a masterclass in risk from the experts: when to go, when to say no, how to prepare and above all, how pushing ourselves a little further helps us become more courageous and resilient in all of our challenges.
Are Red-Hot Factor Funds Vulnerable To Ongoing Rate Hikes?
Update: see the Labor Dept’s payrolls data for a comparison vs. ADP’s estimate at chart at end of this article.
Yesterday’s news that US companies accelerated hiring in June strengthens confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to lift interest rates to tame inflation. In turn, equity risk factors with the strongest gains this year may be vulnerable if a renewed run of hawkish monetary policy unfolds.
Macro Briefing: 7 July 2023
* Yellen criticizes China on actions against US companies
* Global economic activity eases to four-month low in June via PMI survey data
* US services sector growth strengthened in June
* US job openings fell in May, indicating labor market tightness is easing
* Jobless claims in US edge up but remain steady at modest level
* US private payrolls surged in June, ADP reports:
