* Global manufacturing activity continues to contract modestly in June
* US preparing limits on Chinese firms’ access to US cloud-computing services
* China’s export controls on metals used in semiconductors is “just a start”
* Rate hikes aren’t fully taming inflation, at least not yet
* Oil prices stall despite OPEC’s extension of production cuts
* Eurozone economy “grinds to a halt” in June: PMI survey data
* China economic growth eases to slowest pace since January via PMI survey data
* US manufacturing slump deepens in June via ISM Manufacturing Index:

Continue reading →

There are no guarantees. On the other hand…

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed”

Global markets rebounded in June after widespread losses in May, based on a set of proxy ETFs. The downside outlier to last month’s rally for the major asset classes: US bonds, which continued to lose ground.

Continue reading →

* Treasury Secretary Yellen will visit China this week
* Is the US payrolls survey overestimating the labor market’s strength?
* Automakers pushed into lithium mining to compete in electric vehicle market
* China factory activity remains sluggish in June via PMI survey data
* Does AI signal the start of fourth industrial revolution–or is it a bubble?
* Apple becomes world’s first $3 trillion company based on market cap
* Will the US avoid a recession this year? Economists are still debating
* US stock market begins trading this week at 14-month high:

Continue reading →

The birthday celebration for US independence starts early this year at The Capital Spectator. The usual routine returns on Wednesday, July 5. Cheers!

* Biden unveils “Bidenomics” re-election pitch to voters
* US reviewing new restrictions on AI chip exports to China
* Will exports pull China out of its economic slowdown?
* US Consumer Confidence Index rises to 17-month high in June
* US home prices post first year-over-year decline in 11 years in April
* US nearshoring push helps lift Mexico exports to near-record level
* Walgreens stock falls as company warns consumers pull back on spending
* Fed funds futures price in moderately high odds for another 1/4-point rate hike:

Continue reading →

The US stock market has pulled back after briefly hitting a 14-month high on June 16, but there’s still a case for expecting the recent revival in risk-on sentiment to roll on and push markets higher in the near term.

Continue reading →

* Russia appears to resolve stand-off with Wagner paramilitary force
* Central banks should keep rates higher for longer, says IMF chief
* Banking crisis isn’t over — inflation is key factor, advises head of BIS
* Recession forecasts still premature, says economist at Renaissance Macro, but…
* HSBC predicts US recession will start in the fourth quarter
* Major banking reforms advance in Congress
* Japan government to buy semiconductor materials giant for $6.3 billion
* Digital asset inflows surge after BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF filing:

Continue reading →

The Global Market Index fell 1.7% last week (through June 23), marking the first decline for this multi-asset-class benchmark since the final week of May.

Continue reading →

* Putin survived the mini coup launched by Wagner, but his authority takes a hit
* Oil market may face new supply risks after failed uprising in Russia
* World economy at crucial point as inflation struggle continues, advises BIS
* Global economy increasingly relies on consumers for growth
* World’s debt crisis is becoming increasingly complicated due to US-China Rivalry
* Corporate defaults double over year-ago level, reports Moody’s
* China consumer, factor data edge up but still highlight weak economy
* Yen’s recent weakening may be threat to Japanese economy
* Rise in corporate defaults linked to rising interest rates, economic uncertainty
* Pandemic effects, government aid boosting economic resilience, at least for now:

Continue reading →