US nonfarm private sector payrolls declined 32,000 in November, according to the ADP Employment Report. “While November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses,” said ADP’s chief economist. Some economists, however, downplayed the report: “It is too loosely correlated with the official data to be troubling,” advised Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Our model points to a first estimate of a 75,000 to 100,000 increase in private payrolls in November, which after revisions and benchmarking we think would be consistent with growth of about 25,000.”

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As the trading year heads into its final weeks, so-called high-beta shares remain firmly in the lead for US equity risk factors in 2025, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Dec. 2).

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Non-traditional metrics may provide a better way of anticipating a burstring market bubble, reports The Economist: “Surges in Googling do a much better job than valuations at forecasting an imminent fall, as the chart’s third column shows. In each case the price of the stock, basket, fund or cryptocurrency dropped considerably over the 12 months following the peak in internet searches. Moreover, for the ARKK fund, bitcoin, GameStop and SPACs, prices spiked at almost exactly the same time as Googling did.”

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Long-term expectations for the Global Market Index (GMI) are holding at a 7%-plus annualized total return, based on data through November. The forecast has been stable at this pace in recent months, ticking up slightly from last month’s estimate.

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US manufacturing contracted for a ninth straight month in November, based on the ISM Manufacturing Index. “The manufacturing sector continues to be weighed down by the unpredictable tariffs landscape,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.

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Most of the major asset classes rose in November, extending the previous-month’s broad-based gains, based on a set of ETF proxies. US real estate investment trusts led the way, posting a robust gain last month.

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US consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online for the Black Friday shopping spree. The sales level marks a 9.1% rise from last year, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks e-commerce. Spending increased despite weak consumer sentiment, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll.

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● Capitalism: A Global History
Sven Beckert
Review via The New Yorker
Beckert identifies “two diametrically opposed stories”: capitalism either deserves credit for the rise in living standards and longevity or stands condemned as an “insatiable demon.” His book addresses “a deep frustration that so many of the stories we tell about capitalism are incomplete and sometimes just plain wrong.” He invites readers to study capitalism “with a sense of wonder, surprise, and astonishment—not because it is ‘good’ or ‘bad’ but because of its world-shaping power, and because understanding it is crucial to navigating our shared future.”
In the course of the next eleven hundred pages, this sales pitch starts to seem a little disingenuous. By the time Beckert arrives at our “neoliberal” era, he has given himself over to open lamentation: everything has been ruthlessly priced, “even human reproduction.”

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The Capital Spectator is leaning into the holiday trend and making an early exit from the usual routine. The standard fare resumes on Monday, Dec. 1. Cheers!

Investor sentiment on the outlook for another rate cut has been volatile lately, but comments from Federal Reserve officials in recent days has turned the tide back in favor of the doves.

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