* US inflation showing signs of becoming more persistent
* Policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield above 3.79%, highest since 2007
* Xi and Putin will discuss Ukraine war at face-to-face meeting
* China reaps energy windfall after West rejects Russian supplies
* US consumer confidence rose in August, largest improvement since March 2021
* Americans suffer two years in a row of flat or declining household income
* EU upholds antitrust ruling against Google’s parent company Alphabet
* UK inflation rate unexpectedly eases to still-high 9.9%
* Eurozone industrial output falls sharply in July
* US consumer inflation slows less than forecast in August:

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Slow growth, rising interest rates, high inflation and a sundry list of other risk factors threaten to push the US economy into recession at some point in the near term. Or so a chorus of analysts and economists have been warning. It’s short-sighted to dismiss those forecasts, but the data published to date continue to show that US economic activity continues to defy the macro pessimists, at least for now.

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* Ukraine asks for more Western weapons after Russian setback
* US railroad strike poised to start, creating new headwind for economy
* Fed set for another 75bps rate hike next week via Reuters poll
* Soft landing becoming more likely for US economy, JP Morgan analysts predict
* US small business sentiment rebounded moderately in August
* Deposits at US banks fell by a record $370 billion in Q2
* UK jobless rate falls to 48-year low in July
* German investor sentiment continued to deteriorate in September
* Inflation expectations fell again in August, reports NY Fed survey:

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Most risk assets bounced in the trading week through Friday’s close (Sep. 9), based on a set of proxy ETFs that collectively represent the primary asset classes. Confidence that the bounce has legs is another matter.

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* Ukraine’s counteroffensive recaptures large swaths of territory from Russia
* Possible railway and port strikes could re-snarl supply chains
* Fed’s Waller supports another ‘significant increase in the policy rate’
* Will the reversal of Fed support shock the US Treasury market?
* Treasury Sec. Yellen says oil prices could spike this winter
* Hints from several industries point to easing US inflation in August
* UK economy grew less than expected in July
* Queen’s death may inspire new self-rule campaigns in former British colonies
* US 10-year yield approaches June high:

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● Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century
J. Bradford DeLong
Q&A with author via Vox
Q: You argue that 1870 through 2010 were “the most consequential years of all humanity’s centuries.” What’s your case?
A: It really looks that we had as much technological change and progress between 1870 and today as we had between 6000 BC and 1870 AD. We packed what had previously been nearly eight millennia of changes in the underlying technological hardware of society, which required changes in the running sociological code on top of that hardware. To try to pack what had been eight millennia worth of changes before in 150 years is going to produce an awful lot of history. Before 1870, most of history is how elites run their force-and-fraud, domination-and-extraction mechanism against a poor peasantry so that they, at least, can have enough, and so that their children are only two inches shorter than we are, rather than five or six as the peasants are. It’s about how the elites elbow each other out of the way as they eat from the trough. And it’s about the use they make of their wealth for purposes good and ill, of civilization and destruction.

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In a recent post I explored a methodology to guesstimate the S&P 500’s 2-year annualized return 12 months into the future. A silver bullet? Hardly, but as short-term forecasting models go you could do worse. But your editor gets poor marks for explaining the details. Several readers reached out and asked for clarification. Allow me to make amends.

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* Queen’s death comes at a point of high uncertainty for Britain
* Powell says Fed will raise rates to tame inflation ‘until the job is done’
* European Central Bank announces record rate hike to fight inflation
* European energy ministers debating plans for intervening in energy markets
* China’s inflation slowed more than expected in August amid Covid lockdowns
* Deadline approaches for US rail strike that could cost economy $2 billion per day
* US jobless claims drop to lowest since May
* US stocks look set for first weekly rise in a month:

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Escaping the pull of market beta is always tough for equities, especially in a year of sharp losses for the broad market. Although some slices of risk factors are doing better than others, financial gravity continues to dominate in 2022, based on a set of proxy ETFs.

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* US approves $2.7 billion in new aid for Ukraine
* Fed Vice Chair Brainard says central bank is committed to taming inflation
* Fed’s Beige Book: US economy’s recent activity mostly unchanged since early July
* China extends covid-19 lockdowns in megacity Chengdu
* Climate change is expected to exacerbate disruptions for global supply chains
* Japan’s economy expanded more than initially estimated in Q2
* So-called quiet quitters reportedly make up half of US workforce
* Bond market decline weighs on Treasuries and corporates
* Considering the case for a ‘soft landing’ for the US economy
* Crude oil (US benchmark price) falls to seven-month low on Wednesday:

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