Bubble talk is back and for obvious reasons. The stock market has been on a tear and valuation has soared. Classic signs of a bubble, right? Maybe, but it’s usually best to proceed cautiously before declaring that the end is near simply someone tells you the jig is up.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 5 November 2025
Democrats score key electoral wins, including the race for New York City’s mayor, and gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Democrats took advantage of party-out-of-power tailwinds to also pass new congressional district boundaries in California to boost the party’s electoral odds in the House in 2026. The results of last night’s elections exceeded polling expectations in the New Jersey and Virigina.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 04 November 2025
The Global Market Index (GMI) remains on track to generate a 7%-plus annualized total return for the long-run outlook, based on data through October. This estimate of future performance has been steady in recent months, remaining unchanged from the previous month, for instance.
Macro Briefing: 4 November 2025
Manufacturing activity contracted for an eighth straight month in October, according to the survey-based ISM Manufacturing Index. Meanwhile, prices paid in the sector continue to rise. By contrast, a competing survey, paints a brighter picture, reporting “steady growth” in October via the US PMI Manufacturing Index.
Major Asset Classes | October 2025 | Performance Review
US stocks topped returns for the major asset classes in October, regaining the leadership position for the first time in five months, based on a set of ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 3 November 2025
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran says another rate cut is needed in December to lower US recession risk. “If you keep policy this tight for a long period of time, then you run the risk that monetary policy itself is inducing a recession,” he told The New York Times on Friday. “I don’t see a reason to run that risk if I’m not concerned about inflation on the upside.” The Fed funds futures market is pricing in a 63% probability for another 1/4-point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Dec. 10.
Book Bits: 1 November 2025
● The Second Estate: How the Tax Code Made an American Aristocracy
Ray D. Madoff
Review via The Chronicle of Philanthropy
The power imbalance between charities and the wealthy donors and foundations that support them leads to a lot of tongue-biting by the supplicants. And that leaves a relatively small group of people who know how the nonprofit world works and yet are independent enough to speak out about what they see as hard truths.
Ray D. Madoff, author of the new book, The Second Estate: How the Tax Code Made an American Aristocracy, is one of these people. Madoff, a law professor at Boston College Law School, has carved out a side gig as a gadfly to big philanthropy, most significantly in 2020, when she and billionaire John Arnold drafted a legislative proposal designed to spur private foundations and donor-advised funds to give away more money faster.
It didn’t succeed.
US Economy Probably Grew At Solid Pace In Q3
Estimating US economic activity for the third quarter remains a guessing game. The Bureau of Economic Analysis was scheduled to publish its initial estimate yesterday, Oct. 30, but the government shutdown has delayed the report, along with other crucial data releases. Private-sector numbers are filling in some of the blank spots, but uncertainty is on the rise about the economy. On the bright side, using the dwindling set of updated numbers available for nowcasting Q3 still suggests that the output probably rose at a solid pace.
Macro Briefing: 31 October 2025
US 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, trading at at 4.10% on Thursday, marking the highest close in more than three weeks. “The rise in Treasury yields is really the response to the generally hawkish message that I think Powell very intentionally portrayed,” said Matt Bush, US economist at Guggenheim Investmentsat, referencing the Federal Reserve chairman’s comments on Wednesday that raise doubts about another rate cut in December.
Fed’s Powell Raises Doubts About Another Rate Cut
As expected, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut its target rate cut by ¼ point to a 4.0%-to-4.25% 3.75%-4.0% range. The drop marks the second rate cut this year, following the drop in the policy rate in September. A third cut by 2025’s close, however, is less likely, according to Fed Chairman Powell.