The third-quarter GDP report, scheduled for release on Oct. 30, will almost certainly be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown. Meanwhile, the latest nowcasts still point to a moderate pace of economic activity, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. But with each day that key government economic reports are postponed, the reliability of Q3 GDP nowcasting becomes more uncertain.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 23 October 2025
Business inflation expectations were steady in October, reports the Atlanta Fed. Year-ahead inflation expectations at firms surveyed by the regional Fed bank remained relatively unchanged at 2.3%, on average.
Will Friday’s CPI Release Clarify Or Blur The Inflation Outlook?
Judging by the Treasury market, the delayed September update on consumer inflation due on Friday will keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again next week.
Macro Briefing: 22 October 2025
The US 10-year Treasury yield is testing its lowest level since the tariff tantrum in April. The benchmark rate closed down on Tuesday, settling at 3.97%.
Risk-On Sentiment Persists For Global Strategies
Despite worrisome headlines, high valuations in some markets, and elevated policy uncertainty, the appetite for risk remains strong, according to a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Oct. 20).
Macro Briefing: 21 October 2025
The US and Australia signed a deal on critical minerals for projects worth up to $8.5 billion. The deal is expected to help the US reduce its dependence on China, which dominates the global rare earth supply chain. An ETF that targets these commodities is trading near a 1-1/2 year high:
Will Friday’s Delayed CPI Report Derail The Fed’s Rate Cut Plans?
Markets continue to price in high odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next week. The question for Wall Street: Will the delayed consumer inflation report, scheduled for Friday (Oct. 24), play along?
Macro Briefing: 20 October 2025
US third-quarter GDP is on track to rise 3.9%, based on the Atlanta Fed’s revised nowcast published on Friday (Oct. 17). If correct, the increase will tick above the strong 3.8% increase reported for Q2. The government’s Q3 GDP report is scheduled for Oct. 30, but the release could be delayed if the government shutdown continues.
Book Bits: 18 October 2025
● 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History–and How It Shattered a Nation
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Interview with author via CBS News
After nearly a decade spent studying the most famous stock market crash in history, financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin warns that the Wall Street of today echoes the market of 1929, when highs preceded a massive slump, leading to the Great Depression.
Artificial intelligence and technology have contributed to a remarkable boom in recent years. But, Sorkin said, today’s economy is being propped up by the AI boom, and it’s too soon to tell if this is a sugar rush, a short-term and unsustainable boost to the markets. But, Sorkin is positive there’s a crash coming.
“I just can’t tell you when, and I can’t tell you how deep,” he said. “But I can assure you, unfortunately, I wish I wasn’t saying this, we will have a crash.”
Market Premium For 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls To 12-Month Low
The spread for the US 10-year Treasury yield over a “fair value” estimate has narrowed to the smallest gap in a year, based on the average estimate for three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.