War‑related inflation risk appeared to be easing when the US and Iran signed a ceasefire three weeks ago, but new military strikes in the Gulf region this week from both sides highlights and strengthens the uncertainty around the outlook. Markets aren’t yet fully persuaded that inflation will continue to rise, but events over the last several days have increased doubt about when pricing pressure will ease.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Iran Conflict Reorders the Bond Market’s Hierarchy of Havens
The Iran war has scrambled the old map of safety, leaving bond investors rethinking which havens still deserve the name. It’s debatable whether the period since the attacks began on Feb. 28 has forged a new normal, but a review of performance across major fixed‑income sectors certainly raises questions about how to manage expectations.
Geopolitical Risk Roars Back: Oil and Yields Lead the Repricing
The U.S.–Iran ceasefire was looking strained before it appeared to break after both sides traded military strikes yesterday. President Trump said on Wednesday that he believes the ceasefire and interim agreement to end the war are “over.” He added that while U.S. negotiators can continue talking with Iran, he personally considers the effort “a waste of time.”
Q2 GDP Expectations Cool—But Some Economists Aren’t Worried
US economic growth estimates for the second quarter have weakened, according to recent nowcasts. The downturn suggests that output will slow in the upcoming Q2 GDP report, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator.
Will Markets Start To Price In Lower Inflation Risk?
The Iran war appears to be over, or so the ongoing ceasefire suggests. The oil market is certainly leaning into that view: the price of crude has dropped sharply in recent weeks and begins trading this week at around $70 a barrel for the U.S. benchmark, marking a return to the level on the eve of the war’s start on Feb. 28.
250 Years and Counting…
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 July 2026
The outlook for long-term total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up again in June, touching the highest level in recent history. Despite the recent rise, the expected performance remains well below GMI’s realized return over the trailing ten-year window. In other words, GMI performance is forecast to downshift relative to the past decade.
Major Asset Classes | June 2026 | Performance Review
Markets were mixed in June after two solid monthly gains, based on a set of ETFs. Most of the major asset classes lost ground last month, with a handful of exceptions on the upside, led by US real estate investment trusts.
Will Micro Caps Steal The Momentum Factor’s Performance Crown?
Momentum continues to stand out as the dominant equity risk factor since the war with Iran began on Feb. 28. Using a set of ETFs as proxies highlights that this slice of the stock market remains, by far, the strongest performer since the Middle East crisis shocked the global economy.
US Stocks Still Lead Global Markets Since Iran Conflict Erupted
Geopolitical analysts are debating who triumphed in the Middle East conflict, but judging by asset prices the US is the clear winner. Measuring the major asset classes through a set of ETF proxies shows that American equities are the victors in the battle for performance through Friday’s close (June 26).