US presidential election still too close to call the morning after: AP
Still-evolving results in 3 key states will determine next president: Politico
Biden’s ‘Blue Wall’ path to presidency looks shaky at best: NYT
Biden campaign prepared to fight Trump in court: AP
A concession by one side or the other may end up as the only solution: NYT
Republicans appear to hold on to control of US Senate: Reuters
China blocks $34 billion IPO of Ant Group: WSJ
US officially leaves the Paris climate agreement: BBC
US factory orders rose strongly in September: Reuters
Biden has slight lead in Electoral College but final results may take days: NYT

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged down to an annualized 4.7% in October, modestly below the previous month’s estimate. The projection is a long-run forecast for performance over the “risk-free” rate, according to a risk-based model (details below).

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Biden favored in election modeling as US begins voting: FiveThirtyEight
One outlier pollster predicts a clear Trump victory: NYT
Portfolio changes based on election results are risky: CNBC
Economists don’t expect Fed to increase asset purchases through 2021: BBG
US Treasury cuts estimates for borrowing through end of 2020: WSJ
US construction spending rose less than expected in Sep: Reuters
Global manufacturing output rose at 2-1/2 year high in October: IHSM
China Mfg PMI rises in Oct to highest level since 2011: IHSM
Eurozone manufacturing output continued to strengthen in October: IHSM
US Mfg PMI rose in Oct to highest level since Jan 2019: IHSM
US ISM Mfg Index: manufacturing posted strong pickup in growth in Oct: ISM

Global markets were mixed in October, with performances led by stocks and bonds in emerging markets, along with broadly defined commodities. The biggest losers for the major asset classes: shares in the US and developed markets and real estate shares around the world.

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Trump says he’ll consider firing Dr. Anthony Fauci: AP
Big week ahead for US election results and economic data: BBG
Take election forecasting models with a grain of salt: NYT
China Mfg PMI in Oct ‘hits highest level since January 2011’: IHSM
Eurozone PMI survey data for Oct show mfg ‘continues to strengthen’: IHSM
UK mfg upturn continued at slower pace in Oct: IHSM
Chicago PMI dipped in Oct but continues to indicate growth: CPMI
US consumer sentiment index ticked up in October: UoM
US consumer spending rose in September–fifth straight increase: MW

It’s not over till it’s over, but several forecasts and polls on CapitalSpectator.com’s short list continue to favor Democrat Joe Biden as the winner of presidential contest on Nov. 3. Here’s a quick recap of the numbers as the countdown to Tuesday’s results goes into the final hours.

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● China’s Trump Card: Cryptocurrency and its Game-Changing Role in Sino-US Trade
Raymond Yeung
Review via South China Morning Post
The US dollar will cease to be the de facto world currency as globalization retreats, so China and the United States should work together to create a globally used cryptocurrency – a strategy that would weaken the dollar, encourage American exports and help balance trade between the two superpowers.
These are the main takeaways from China’s Trump Card: Cryptocurrency and Its Game-Changing Role in Sino-US Trade, by Raymond Yeung, the chief Greater China economist at ANZ Bank. Yeung offers a novel, and somewhat wishful, proposal to one of the world’s most complicated and significant problems – the economic rivalry between the US and China.

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The baby and the bathwater: Risk-off dominated global market activity this week as investors dumped every slice of our standard lineup of the major asset classes as of today’s close (Oct 30).

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Predicting the end of the secular decline in interest rates has been a hardy perennial — and perennially wrong. Given this history, any observer of bond yields must be wary of declaring that a 40-year trend has reached its end.

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US economy posts dramatic rebound in Q3–GDP rose at record rate: CNBC
Analysts worry that US economic rebound is fading: BBC
Early US voting rises to a record 80 million: Reuters
US coronavirus cases rise above 89,000 a new record: BBG
Europe’s rising coronavirus infections and death are a warning for the US: WSJ
Jobless US workers face potentially massive defaults: Politico
Amazon expects $4 billion in Covid-19-related expenses: CNBC
US pending home sales fell in Sep after four straight monthly gains: Reuters
Big Tech’s profits continue to surge: NYT
US jobless claims continue to fall, dropping to pandemic low: CNBC