As companies begin to report Q2 earnings this week, investors will be alert to the possibility that tariffs are putting pressure on profits. “So far, the impact of tariffs has been very muted when it comes to economic data on inflation, consumer spending, and business activity,” notes Morningstar. Factset projects that S&P 500 earnings will increase 4.8% for Q2, an estimate that marks the lowest earnings growth reported since the 4.0% rise for Q4:2023.

Trump presses ahead with plans for raising tariffs on the country’s leading trading partners, including the European Union, Canada and Mexico. “We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%. We’ll work that out now,” Trump told NBC News. Blanket tariffs are currently set at 10%. “I think the tariffs have been very well received. The stock market hit a new high today.”

China Shock 2.0 is fast approaching, predict two economic professors who warned about the first shock during 1997-2007, which was a factor in reducing nearly one-quarter of US manufacturing jobs. Today, China is actively contesting the US lead in a variety cutting-edge technologies, such as AI, microprocessors, robotics, nuclear and fusion power, quantum computing, biotech and other industries. “China’s technological vision is already reordering governments and markets in Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and increasingly Eastern Europe. Expect this influence to grow as the United States retreats into an isolationist MAGAsphere,” write David Autor and Gordon Hanson.

China exports rose 5.8% in June as tariffs reprieve triggers a surge of orders. Exports to the United States, however, fell 16%, although that was less than half the 34.5% drop seen in May.

Since the October 7 2023 attacks on Israel, the best-performing major stock market in the world is . . . Israel,” writes Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International. “After taking an initial hit, the market recovered fully in four weeks, and since then is up around 80% in dollar terms.”