Macro Briefing: 18 January 2024

* Pakistan launches retaliatory airstrikes on militants in Iran
* Commercial real estate market braces for record amount of maturing loans
* US homebuilder sentiment rises for second month in January
* Fed Beige book reports mixed US economic activity in recent weeks
* Business inflation expectations fell “significantly” to 2.2% in January: Atlanta Fed
* Industrial output in US ticks up slightly in December
* US retail sales rise more than forecast in December:

The US 10-year Treasury yield continued to rise yesterday (Jan. 17), closing at 4.10%, a one-month high. The increase in recent days comes amid softer expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Fed funds futures currently estimate a roughly 60% probability that the central bank will announce its first cut for this cycle at the March 20 policy meeting.