Macro Briefing: 19 July 2022

* Russia edges closer to shutting gas flow to Europe
* China will take “forceful measures” if US House Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan
* New coronavirus lockdowns in China raise questions about economic outlook
* Eurozone inflation rises to new record high, adding pressure for rate hikes
* Inflation is “deeply entrenched” in global economy, says Goldman CEO
* Strong dollar is factor weighing on recent fall in commodity prices
* UK is expected to set hottest day for Tuesday
* US homebuilder confidence fell sharply in July:

The rise in the high-yield bond spread is starting to attract attention as a possible “buy” signal. “Given that high-yield spreads are once again nearing the 6% level, an area that we consider a crisis level, it is again time to take a close look at high yield,” writes Greg Obenshain at Verdad, a money management firm.

Fund managers’ appetite for holding stocks falls to level last seen in 2008 financial crisis, a new Bank of America survey reports. The poll reflects 259 participants with $722 billion under management for the week through July 15. Inflation is cited as the main tail risk, followed by global recession and tighter monetary policy via central banks.