Macro Briefing: 21 December 2023

* Small group of Wall Street economists still see US recession lurking, but…
* Fear of recession is starting to fade for Americans
* Warner Bros in merger talks with Paramount
* 5 portfolio lessons from 2023, including: Don’t Fight the Fed
* US existing home sales rise in November–first gain in 5 months
* US Consumer Confidence Index rebounds sharply in December:

US 10-year Treasury yield continues to slide, falling to 5-month low in Wednesday’s trading (Dec. 20). The Financial Times notes: “A global rally in government debt has already driven yields past many Wall Street targets for the end of 2024, highlighting how recent market moves have taken analysts by surprise.” The article quotes Bank of America rates strategist Meghan Swiber, who says: “It’s been a very quick move in rates, because the Fed has made a very quick pivot. It just speaks to how volatile the market has been — and how very conditional it is on our understanding of how the Fed will move.”

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