Richard Vague
Summary via publisher (U. of Pennsylvania Press)
When we talk about debt and its impact on our economy, we almost always mean “government debt.” However, this is only a small part of the picture: individuals, private firms, and households owe trillions, and these private debts are vital to understanding the economy. Author Richard Vague examines the assets, liabilities, and incomes of the entire country, private and public sector, to reveal its net worth. His holistic analysis shows that the real factor that drives both financial crises and spiraling inequality—but also, paradoxically, economic growth—is ever rising private debt. The paradox is that while debt is essential and our economy relies on it, it also brings instability unless it is periodically deleveraged—and that is very hard to do. It can, however, be carefully managed, and Vague ends the book by showing how to do so in policy areas ranging from trade and housing to financial policy and student debt.
Has The Fed’s Rate-Hiking Cycle Peaked?
This week’s news on consumer inflation supports the case for expecting that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are approaching the end game. The basic calculus is that are disinflation persists, the odds rise that the central bank will pause its policy of tightening monetary policy.
Macro Briefing: 14 July 2023
* Falling US dollar is boost for risk assets across the globe
* US federal deficit surges in first nine months of fiscal year
* Soft landing odds rise for US economy after release of inflation data for June
* Wholesale inflation barely rose in June vs. year-ago level
* Too early to declare victory on inflation, says SF Fed president
* US jobless claims tick down, holding near multi-decade low:
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 13 July 2023
The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the relatively wide spread will likely narrow in the months ahead.
Macro Briefing: 13 July 2023
* Will new US investment restrictions on China derail latest diplomatic outreach?
* China exports fell the most in three years in June
* IEA cuts global oil demand forecast for 2023
* US economic activity increased slightly since late May: Fed Beige Book
* Business inflation expectations unchanged at 2.8% in July: Atlanta Fed survey
* Elon Must announces new company focused on artificial intelligence
* US junk bond market shrinks sharply after rate hikes
* “Inflation story is history,” predicts Johns Hopkins University Steve Hanke
* US consumer inflation slows to softest pace in more than two years:
Macro Briefing: 12 July 2023
* More rate hikes expected no matter what today’s US inflation data reveals
* Possible UPS strike would be “disruptive” for US economy
* Auto industry prepares for contentious talks with unions
* Demand for lithium and other critical minerals is surging, IEA says
* Housing market may be near inflection point as prices look set to spike
* Variations for measuring inflation stir debate on which metrics are best
* World expected to consume more oil than it produces in 2023
* US Dollar Index trades near lowest level in over a year:
US Recession Risk Is Still Low, Defying Recent Forecasts
New York Fed President John Williams says “I don’t have a recession in my forecast.” Neither does CapitalSpectator.com. That’s not blind adherence to a central banker’s prognostications. Rather, the view on these pages is based on the data. Not a single indicator, but a broad sweep of the numbers.
Macro Briefing: 11 July 2023
* Sweden receives greenlight to join NATO after Turkey gives approval
* Fed officials say higher interest rates still needed to tame inflation
* Is China’s deflation risk a threat to world economy?
* German business sentiment weakens more than expected in July
* China’s economic troubles are boosting other Asian markets
* Fed Vice Chair Barr proposes stricter capital regulations on banks
* Major stock indices set “traps” for investors
* Should emerging markets be in your portfolio? “Maybe, but handle with care”:
US Stocks Continue To Lead Major Asset Classes In 2023
American shares eased last week, but the US stock market remains the clear leader for the major asset classes this year, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Friday’s close (July 7).
Macro Briefing: 10 July 2023
* Joe Biden arrives in UK ahead of this week’s NATO summit in Lithuania
* Yellen says China talks ‘productive’ after meeting in Beijing
* This week’s US inflation report will bring new clues for Fed rate hike outlook
* China on brink of deflation
* US banks set to report biggest loan losses since pandemic
* Don’t rule a US recession out just yet, says Treasury Sec. Yellen
* US private-sector hiring in June eases to slowest pace in 2-1/2 years:
