It’s premature to rule out the possibility that US inflation will peak in the months ahead, but recent projections that the peaking is imminent and will reflect a sharp decline in pricing pressure now looks unlikely.
Macro Briefing: 28 October 2021
* Quick deal on Dem’s social-spending agenda falls apart
* US reportedly training troops in Taiwan
* Top US general says China’s hypersonic weapons test is “very concerncing”
* One-third of China’s property developers will struggle to repay debts
* Chip shortage takes toll on profits at GM and Ford
* US economic growth projected to slow in Q3, but a rebound is expected
* US trade deficit for goods surged in September as exports fell
* New US orders for durable goods fell in September at headline level:
Energy Still Leads US Equity Sectors By Wide Margin In 2021
The reboot of energy stocks rolls on in the year-to-date sector horse race, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Oct. 26).
Macro Briefing: 27 October 2021
* Democrats unveil plan for 15% minimum corporate tax
* Democrats are considering a novel capital-gains tax on billionaires
* Microsoft and Alphabet beat expectations for revenue growth
* US is now the leader in bitcoin mining after China crackdown
* Treasury market’s 5-year inflation forecast rises to 2.99% for the first time
* Hot US housing market may be starting to cool, based on S&P Case-Shiller Index
* New home sales rebounded to six-month high in September
* US Consumer Confidence rises in October, following three months of decline:
Outlier Risk, Part I
Would you know an outlier if you saw one? They’re everywhere and easy to spot, or so one can argue. But casual observation is one thing and shouldn’t be confused with robust statistical definitions.
Macro Briefing: 26 October 2021
* Biden’s billionaire tax runs into criticism as too cumbersome
* Markets increasingly pricing in risk that inflation isn’t transitory
* Blackstone’s Schwarzman says energy shortages could cause social unrest.
* Ark Invest’s Cathy Wood says falling money velocity will keep inflation in check
* Apple’s new privacy rules take a bite out of Facebook’s ad growth
* Tesla’s market cap reaches $1 trillion as Hertz orders 100,000 Teslas
* Dallas Fed Mfg Index: sector growth slows in October as “costs soar”
* US economic growth continued to slow in September via Chicago Fed index:
US REITs And Stocks Were Last Week’s Top Performers
US risk assets refuse to go quietly into the night. Although the recent correction was the longest and steepest since the pandemic recovery began in the spring of 2020, it appears that the latest slide was another bit of noise in an ongoing bull market, based on a set of ETFs through last week’s close (Oct. 22).
Macro Briefing: 25 October 2021
* Biden close to passing laws that will bring major shift in social policy
* New round of Russia-linked computer-hacking operations identified
* Big tech earnings reports in focus this week
* Treasury Sec. Yellen expects high inflation through mid-2022
* Short-term gov’t bond yields, sensitive to rate expectations, are rising
* Federal Reserve prepares to wind down bond-buying program in November
* Sudan’s prime minister arrested amid reports of a coup
* US economic growth strengthened in October, according to PMI survey data:
Book Bits: 23 October 2021
Jonathan E. Hillman
Summary via publisher (Harper Business)
From the ocean floor to outer space, China’s Digital Silk Road aims to wire the world and rewrite the global order. Taking readers on a journey inside China’s surveillance state, rural America, and Africa’s megacities, Jonathan Hillman reveals what China’s expanding digital footprint looks like on the ground and explores the economic and strategic consequences of a future in which all routers lead to Beijing. If China becomes the world’s chief network operator, it could reap a commercial and strategic windfall, including many advantages currently enjoyed by the United States.
Comparing This Year’s Inflation Surge With History
The sharp rise in US inflation in 2021 may or may not be transitory, but history reminds that the numbers to date aren’t unusual.