Inflation pressures remain relatively high for the US but the rebound after pandemic lows may be peaking, according to the latest update of the Inflation Trend Index (ITI), a seven-factor benchmark that’s designed to provide a degree of forward guidance on the directional bias of pricing activity.
Macro Briefing: 8 June 2021
* Kamala Harris, in Guatemala, tells migrants ‘Do not come to US’
* US recovers most of ransom paid by Colonial Pipeline to hackers
* Fed in early stages of preparing markets for tapering asset purchases
* FDA approves Biogen’s Alzheimer’s disease drug
* Higher commodity prices are a risk factor for global economic recovery
* Eurozone economy contracted by much less than expected in Q1
* Japan’s economy fell less than initially reported in Q1
* German industrial output posts unexpected decline in April
* US consumer borrowing rose for third straight month in April
* US 10-year Treasury yield near two-month low ahead of inflation update:
US REITs Led A Global Rally Last Week
Nearly every slice of the major asset classes posted a gain last week, based on a set of exchange traded funds, led by real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the US.
Macro Briefing: 7 June 2021
* US Senate set to pass huge industrial policy legislation
* Cracks in Democratic Senate unity imperil party’s policy agenda
* Will Congress approve the G-7’s agreement on a global minimum tax?
* Treasury Sec. Yellen says higher rates would help US
* China’s imports rose at fastest pace in 10 years in May
* US oil prices reach $70 a barrel for first time in three years
* Will we need Covid-19 booster shots? Scientists are studying the question
* US employment growth picked up in May but fell well short of expectations
* Real US Treasury yields via TIPS remain deeply negative:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 6 June 2021
Finally, some alpha. Two of our three proprietary strategies dispensed some benchmark-beating returns last week (through June 4) after a stretch of underperformance. A third matched the benchmark, Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which continually holds the 16-fund opportunity set (shown in the table at the end of this update).
Book Bits: 5 June 2021
Jan Eeckhout
Review via NPR
While it’s had some ups and downs, the stock market has soared to historic heights in recent years. For many, that’s great news: It’s a sign the economy and their retirement accounts are doing really well. For Jan Eeckhout, however, the booming stock market is a sign there’s something deeply wrong with the economy.
Sure, the economist says, he has a retirement account with stocks, and he personally benefits from the ongoing bonanza on stock exchanges. But the rocket ride of the stock market is powered by the exploding profits of increasingly powerful corporations. Their increasingly ridiculous profits, he says, are eating the income of the vast bulk of workers and hurting the overall economy. That notion is the central thesis of his forthcoming book, The Profit Paradox: How Thriving Firms Threaten the Future of Work.
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 4 June 2021
- Another week of gains across asset classes and around the world
- Global asset allocation continues to pay off for portfolio strategies
Is The US Dollar At Risk Of Losing Reserve Currency Status?
Dollar weakness is a topical subject this year, inspiring new forecasts that the currency is in danger of losing its reserve currency status. Advocates of this outlook point to various clues that suggest the end is near. But a careful review of the likely replacements suggest that the greenback will retain is central role in world trade for years to come.
Macro Briefing: 4 June 2021
* Biden signals willingness to negotiate with GOP on infrastructure package
* NY Fed president says it’s too early to reduce stimulus
* Is the US economy at risk of overheating?
* Global growth continued to accelerate in May via PMI survey data
* US economic growth strengthened in May via Composite PMI data
* US jobless claims fell below 400k for first time during pandemic
* US ISM Services PMI continues to indicate strong sector growth in May
* US private employment growth accelerated in May to 7-month high:
Major Asset Classes | May 2021 | Risk Review
Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to tick higher in May.