* Fed’s Powell: US on track for a strong economic recovery
* Famine risk is rising for North Korea
* Violence erupts in Northern Ireland
* Blackrock’s green-investing fund is largest-ever ETF launch
* Will US plan to overhaul corporate taxes reverberate globally?
* Push to unionize Amazon in Alabama is stumbling
* Countries with highest incomes have 40% of world’s vaccinations
* China factory inflation in March at highest since 2018
* Higher inflation in China suggests tighter monetary policy may be near
* US jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week–well above consensus forecast:
Small Cap Value Still Leading US Equity Factor Returns In 2021
How long can small-cap value stocks outperform the rest of the factor field? According to the influential Fama-French research, this slice of US equity risk has dominated performance over the long haul. In recent years, however, the long-run record faltered as growth and large-cap led. But small-cap value is back in 2021 and for the moment, at least, is well ahead in the equity factor horse race on a year-to-date basis.
Macro Briefing: 8 April 2021
* Biden open to negotiating details on corporate tax hike
* Highly infectious variant of the coronavirus now dominant in US, says CDC
* Fed minutes: policymakers say low rates will stay in place
* Global economic rebound accelerated in March via Global Composite PMI
* Global rise in food prices remains persistent
* Rising dollar in first quarter confounds bearish expectations
* CFO economic optimism rose above pre-pandemic level in late-March
* US consumer borrowing surged in February–biggest gain since late-2017:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 7 April 2021
Downside risk for Emerging Markets continues to lurk: Two weeks ago (Mar. 24) the potential for an extended haircut in Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (VWO) appeared to be bubbling. The financial gods, however, laughed at the idea and the ETF subsequently bounced. Game over? Not yet since the rally looks unconvincing.
US GDP Nowcasts Continue To Anticipate Stronger Growth For Q1
The upcoming first-quarter economic report for the US is expected to post a strong acceleration in growth, according to a set of nowcasts. The projected gain in gross domestic product (GDP) has been steady recently, suggesting a relatively high reliability that the Apr. 29 release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will reflect a faster expansion in Q1 vs. the previous quarter.
Macro Briefing: 7 April 2021
* Global middle class shrank last year–first time since 1990
* Brazil’s Covid-19 deaths set to exceed worst of US wave
* Markets pricing in a Fed rate hike for 2022
* Debt and climate change are rising risks for dozens of countries
* IMF raises 2021 growth estimates for US and global economy
* Eurozone economy rebounded in March via PMI survey data
* US job openings rose in February to two-year high:
Will The Fed Be Forced To Raise Rates Earlier Than Expected?
It will be gradual, with ample advance notice. And it’ll only begin once the economy has “fully recovered.” That, at least, is the plan for raising interest rates at some point in the future, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell explained late last month. The key question: Will the economy cooperate?
Macro Briefing: 6 April 2021
* EU and UK pledge support for Ukraine after Russian military buildup
* China says military exercises near Taiwan will become routine
* US to attend talks in Vienna aimed at reviving Iran nuclear deal,
* Treasury Sec. Yellen wants a minimum global corporate income tax
* Fed will face criticism with easy money policies if economy soars
* GOP Leader McConnell says ‘consequences’ await companies wading into politics
* Tens of thousands of stores at risk of closing, UBS warns
* China is first major economy to create a digital currency
* China service sector expanded at a stronger pace in March
* US ISM Services Index rose sharply in March, reflecting accelerating growth:
US Stocks Led Gains In Last Week’s Risk-On Rally
Shares in US companies topped returns for the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange traded funds through April 1. The rally in American stocks unfolded in a week when global equities overall posted solid gains.
Macro Briefing: 5 April 2021
* Wall Street eyes higher corporate taxes in Biden’s new stimulus plan
* Veteran pension consultant recommends simplifying portfolios with indexing
* Is worker productivity at long last set to rise?
* Some states try to derail Biden’s clean energy agenda
* US payrolls surged in March, well above forecasts
* Goldman Sach reverses its bearish dollar forecast as Treasury yields rise
* US Dollar Index rose for third straight week after strong payrolls report: