China, the world’s second-largest economy, continues to suffer in human and economic terms from the coronavirus, but there were minimal signs of concern in last week’s performance of the US equity market, which posted the strongest increase for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs.
Macro Briefing | 10 February 2020
Trump’s budget proposal targets large cuts in non-defense spending: Politico
As China returns to work after holiday, coronavirus deaths top 900: Reuters
Taiwan scrambles jets for 2nd day to intercept Chinese planes: Reuters
China’s Hubei province, an industrial powerhouse, is shut for 3rd week: BBG
Political turmoil in Germany after far-right candidate wins vote: NY Times
Stock bull Ed Yardeni: How long will investors shrug off coronavirus? CNBC
Big tech dominates holdings in funds marketed as ‘sustainable’ investments: WSJ
Hiring rebounded sharply in US during January: MW
10yr Treasury yield curve looks poised to invert… again:
Book Bits | 8 February 2020
By Mara Hvistendahl
Review via NewAmerica.org
Industrial espionage by Chinese companies lies beneath the United States’ recent trade war with China, and it is one of the top counterintelligence targets of the FBI. But a decade of efforts to stem the problem have been largely ineffective. Through previously unreleased FBI files and her reporting from across the United States and China, Hvistendahl describes a long history of shoddy counterintelligence on China, much of it tinged with racism, and questions the role that corporate influence plays in trade secrets theft cases brought by the U.S. government. The Scientist and the Spy is both an important exploration of the issues at stake and a compelling, involving read.
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US Companies Ramped Up Hiring In January
Private payrolls in the US rebounded in January, beating expectations by a wide margin and minimizing concern that the economy is stumbling, according to this morning’s release from the Labor Department. Companies added 206,000 workers–a solid improvement over December’s 142,000 gain in the private sector. The 1-year trend edged down last month, near the lowest pace since the recession ended. But for now it appears that the worst you can say about jobs creation is that the annual comparison is easing at a gradual rate that still leaves plenty of room for macro optimism in the near term.
Expecting Higher Interest Rates? 700 Years Of History Beg To Differ
The spread of negative interest rates around the world in recent years is worrisome, in part because it raises the specter of strengthening deflationary headwinds for the global economy. Optimists counter that subzero yields are an anomaly that will soon give way to a normalization of rates, which is to say positive yields. Maybe, but the forces of economic history suggest otherwise, according to new research from the Bank of England.
Macro Briefing | 7 February 2020
Buttigieg narrowly wins Iowa caucuses, state party reports: Reuters
Chinese President Xi’s gov’t under pressure after death of hero doctor: BBG
White House announces death of leader of terrorist group in Yemen: CNN
Trump ‘apoplectic’ over UK’s decision on China’s Huawei 5G technology: CNBC
Earnings are beating expectations, but shareholders’ reaction is muted: WSJ
US small-business optimism eased but remained strong in early Jan: Gallup
German industrial output fell sharply in Dec, raising recession worries: Reuters
US job cuts surged in January: CG&C
Jobless claims for US fell, near 50yr low, signaling tight labor mkt: MW
Record High For S&P 500 Spawns New Round Of Bubble Talk
The US stock market (S&P 500) rallied to a record high on Wednesday (Feb. 5), which unleashed fresh warnings from some corners of elevated bubble risk. Perhaps, but whenever you hear someone claim with authority that there’s a bubble, and it’s about to burst, ask the oracle what model he’s using.
Macro Briefing | 6 February 2020
Senate acquits Trump of impeachment charges: Politico
Coronavirus infections and death toll continue rising–no signs of slowing: CNN
China announces plans to halve tariffs on US goods: CNBC
US trade deficit shrank in 2019, partly due to rising oil production: NY Times
German factory orders fell at steepest annual pace in 10 years in Nov: Bloomberg
Global economic output in Jan grew at fastest pace since March 2019: IHS Markit
Services PMI for US rose to 10-month high in January: IHS Markit
US services sector growth continued to pick up in January: ISM
US private payrolls rose 291,000 in January–best gain in 5 years: ADP
Tech Soars, Energy Sinks So Far In 2020 Equity Sector Horse Race
US equity sector performance in 2020 is a study in contrasts. At the high end of year-to-date results: technology shares. Meanwhile, energy continues to suffer as the big loser, based on a set of ETF proxies.
Macro Briefing | 5 February 2020
Buttigieg maintains slim lead in partial, delayed Iowa caucus results: CNN
Coronavirus could delay, not derail, US-China trade deal: WSJ
Trump highlights economic growth in State of the Union speech: WSJ
Senate expected to acquit Trump in impeachment trial today: Reuters
Will coronavirus ‘wildcard’ cause central banks to react? Bloomberg
Eurozone Composite PMI ticks up, suggesting economy is stabilizing: IHS Markit
China Services PMI continues to reflect slow growth in January: MW
UK Services PMI rose sharply in Jan–first growth reading in 5 months: IHS Markit
US factory orders rose sharply in December, but 1-year trend remains negative:
