● The Deals of Warren Buffett Volume 2: The Making of a Billionaire
By Glen Arnold
Summary via publisher (Harriman House)
In this second volume of The Deals of Warren Buffett, the story continues as we trace Warren Buffett’s journey to his first $1bn. When we left Buffett at the end of Volume 1, he had reached a fortune of $100m. In this enthralling next instalment, we follow Buffett’s investment deals over two more decades as he became a billionaire. This is the most exhilarating period of Buffett’s career, where he found gem after gem in both the stock market and among tightly-run family firms with excellent economic franchises. In this period, Berkshire Hathaway shares jumped 29-fold from $89 to $2,600.
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ETF Momentum
Frank Weikai Li (Singapore Management University), et al.
October 12, 2019
We document economically large momentum profits when sorting ETFs on returns over the past two to four years. A value-weighted, long-short strategy based on ETF momentum delivers Carhart (1997) four-factor alphas of up to 1.20% per month. Neither cross-sectional stock momentum nor co-variation with macroeconomic and liquidity risks can explain ETF momentum. Instead, the post-holding period returns are most consonant with the behavioral story of delayed overreaction. While ETF momentum survives multiple adjustments for transaction costs, it may be difficult to arbitrage as the profits are volatile and concentrated in ETFs with high idiosyncratic volatility or that hold low-analyst-coverage stocks.
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Bridgewater, world’s largest hedge fund, bets big on market drop: WSJ
Eurozone economy virtually stagnant for third month in Nov: IHS Markit
UK economy contracting at deepest rate in three years in Nov: IHS Markit
Japan’s economic activity is essentially flat in Nov: IHS Markit
Negotiations on NAFTA successor roll on; vote possible in weeks ahead: NY Times
US Leading Economic Index fell for the third month in October: CB
Existing home sales in US rose 1.9% in October: WSJ
Philly Fed’s regional mfg index posted stronger growth in November: Philly Fed
US jobless claims held steady at five-month high last week: CNBC
US business cycle index (ADS) rebounds after falling close to recession signal:

Advocates of small-cap equities keep talking about the possibility of a revival for these shares, but year-to-date results suggest otherwise, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.

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Sondland says Trump directed Ukraine pressure campaign: Politico
US-China trade deal may be at risk if Trump signs Hong Kong bill: CNBC
China invites Americans for new trade talks: WSJ
Fed minutes show more rate cuts are unlikely: MW
Charles Schwab reportedly in talks to acquire TD Ameritrade: CNBC
OECD: Europe’s QE monetary policy deepens pain of negative rates: Bloomberg
German exports to US rose in Q3: Reuters
Israel fails to form a government; new elections (again) are likely: NPR
Share of Americans moving falls below 10% — lowest since 1947: NY Times
US commercial lending 1yr growth rate fell to +4.7% in Oct, lowest in 1-1/2 years:

US economic growth has slowed but signs that the macro trend is stabilizing suggest that the recent downshift won’t lead to a recession in the immediate future. Nonetheless, the expansion appears to be increasingly vulnerable. Another round of shocks, expected or otherwise, could push the economy over the edge. For the moment, however, the numbers show that slow growth prevails.

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Are US-China trade talks at an impasse? WSJ
China criticizes US after Senate passes bill supporting Hong Kong protesters: CNBC
Don’t overlook the brewing US-Europe trade conflict, says analyst: MW
Sluggish earnings for retailers raise questions about holiday season: WSJ
Gordon Sondland is key witness in today’s impeachment hearing: Reuters
All eyes on Lagarde, ECB’s chief, in her first policy speech on Friday: BBG
Israel launches airstrike on Syria: Reuters
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate ticks up but +0.4% is still worrisome
US housing starts picked up in October, rising 8.5% vs. year-earlier level:

Judging by the US stock market, the economic outlook is optimistic in no trivial degree. The S&P 500 Index rose for a fifth straight day on Monday (Nov. 18), ticking up to another record high. Taking a cue from the party atmosphere on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs’ chief equity strategist expects the sluggish US economy will improve in 2020.

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US shifts policy and backs Israeli on settlements in West Bank: WSJ
Dems release new transcripts ahead of today’s impeachment hearings: The Hill
Fed Chairman Powell met with Trump on Monday: USA Today
Pimco: US and China may sign ‘phase one’ trade deal before Christmas: CNBC
Goldman Sachs expects US economic growth to pick up in 2020: CNBC
US home builder sentiment remains near post-recession high in November: CNBC

US real estate investment trusts (REITs) rallied last week, posting the strongest gain for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. US REITs also continue to lead global markets with the highest one-year return as well.
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