Trump defers to Pelosi and agrees to delay SOTU speech: Politico
Upcoming Senate votes on reopening gov’t expected to fail: Bloomberg
Aviation workers: gov’t shutdown poses rising risk for air travel: NY Times
Venezuela’s opposition leader claims presidency, receives US support: Reuters
American business leaders remain upbeat on economic outlook: NY Times
Poll: US growth will slow in Q1 due to gov’t shutdown: Reuters
Eurozone economy close to stalling in Jan via PMI survey: IHS Markit
Global gov’t debt rose to $66 trillion at 2018-end–double year-ago level: Fitch
US FHFA House Price Index increased 5.7% in Oct vs year-ago level: HousingWire
Richmond Fed: mfg activity was ‘soft’ in Jan in the bank’s district: Richmond Fed
Earnings sentiment (ERR) is weakest since mid-2016: BlackRock

On Christmas Eve, the US stock market appeared to be caught in a bear-market, based on econometric analysis via a Hidden Markov model (HMM). Since then, we’ve seen a strong rally in the new year. But the regime shift to the dark remains intact and in fact has strengthened.
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Congress set to vote on bills to end partial gov’t shutdown: Politico
US national intelligence director warns of increasing threats: NY Times
UK trade minister see ‘good chance’ for a Brexit deal: CNBC
Ex-US Marine, held in Russia on spying charges, is denied bail: Newsweek
Three men and teen arrested in alleged plot to bomb muslims in upstate NY: CNN
LA teachers end week-long strike: USA Today
Brazil’s Bolsonaro gives pro-business speech at Davos: Reuters
Existing homes sales fell 10.3% in Dec vs. year-ago level: MW
US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index spiked to 2-1/2 yr high on Tues: FRED
US truck shipments fell in year-over-year terms in Dec — first loss in 2 years: Axios

Trading is set to resume today for the US stock market with value firmly in the lead for year-to-date performance for the major equity factors, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. In fact, a positive bias prevails across the board for stocks so far in 2019. Headwinds may be brewing via several areas of concern, including softer global growth and the ongoing partial government shutdown. But as the crowd returns to work after a long weekend, value enjoys a sizable performance edge in the new year.
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Senate unlikely to approve Trump’s plan to reopen gov’t: WSJ
Taliban attack on military base in Afghanistan kills dozens: NBC
Report finds a new previously undisclosed missile base in N. Korea: USA Today
China warns US and Canada on extradition of Huawei exec: SCMP
UK’s Labour Party moves closer to securing 2nd Brexit referendum: Reuters
US recession worries are on the rise: CNN
Americans’ outlook for economy has soured in the past 2 months: Gallup
IMF trims 2019 growth estimates for global economy: IMF 

Global equities, real estate and commodities posted solid gains last week, offsetting losses in bonds. Overall, it was a mixed week for the major asset classes, but an upside bias clearly dominated.
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China’s economic growth decelerated to 28-year low in 2018: CNBC
Israel attacked Iranian forces in Syria: NBC
Is the Fed the source of this year’s rebound in stocks? NY Times
Senate GOP leader to introduce bill this week to reopen gov’t: Politico
Trump-Pelosi battle rages on over gov’t shutdown: WaPo
Missing US economic data due to shutdown leaves hole for macro analysis: MW
The rich have become richer since the financial crisis: Bloomberg
Consumer sentiment in US fell sharply in January: MW
US industrial output rebounded in Dec, but annual pace eased to 4.0%: CNBC

The odds are still low that a new US recession has started, but economic momentum continues to slow. The headwinds remain moderate so far, but the potential for trouble later in the year is rising, in part due to the partial government shutdown.
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Trump blocks Pelosi’s overseas trip, citing gov’t shutdown: WSJ
Trump-Pelosi feud dims prospects for quick end to gov’t shutdown: Bloomberg
Key dates to watch for monitoring partial gov’t shutdown: CNBC
N. Korea and US planning to discuss possibility of 2nd Trump-Kim summit: Reuters
Signs of progress on US-China trade dispute support global stock markets: Reuters
BuildFax data suggests US housing starts fell in Dec: MW
US jobless claims fell more than expected last week: CNBC
Philly Fed Mfg index strengthens in January: MW
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index surged in 2018: Axios