● The Empire Of Things: How We Became a World of Consumers, from the 15thC to the 21stC
By Frank Trentmann
Review via The Independent
Trentmann has written a suitably gigantic book for a gigantic subject but the mass of detail he provides never overwhelms. This is a book that can be dipped into and enjoyed at leisure. The first half, in which he describes how the consumer culture took off, is especially fascinating. You can’t not learn something new here.
He closes his epic tale on a sombre note, warning that unless a cultural revolution takes place, which frees us from our addiction to buying, consuming and then throwing things away, we risk submerging the entire planet in waste. Judging by our record so far, don’t hold out your hopes.
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The US economic trend looks a bit firmer in the wake of today’s update on personal income and spending for January and revised numbers for last year’s fourth-quarter GDP data. Notably, the year-over-year trend for income and spending kicked higher at the start of 2016. Macro risk is still elevated relative to the broad trend six months ago, especially from a global perspective. But for the moment there’s a modestly stronger tailwind blowing in the published numbers for the US—news that eases fears for assuming that the world’s largest economy is sliding into a new recession.
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The US economy’s stall speed expansion in last year’s fourth quarter is on track to accelerate in Q1, according to a variety of estimates. There’s disagreement about the strength of the revival, but a diverse set of forecasts are in agreement that Q1 economic activity will strengthen in the “advance” estimate that the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish on Apr. 29.
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● US Jobless Claims Inched Up, But Still Point to Robust Job Market | WSJ
● Strong US durable goods orders in Jan offer hope for mfg | Reuters
● Consumer sentiment in US holding steady near 3-mo high last week | Bloomberg
● Kansas City Fed composite mfg index falls to 7-year low in Feb | KC Fed
● Eurozone economic sentiment drops more than expected in Feb | Reuters
● Global Finance Leaders Meet as Economic Skies Darken | NY Times

The preliminary numbers for the US macro profile in February look wobbly, based on this week’s updates of purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) for the services and manufacturing sectors. But before we go down that rabbit hole consider this: there’s no sign of trouble in today’s weekly report on initial jobless claims. This leading indicator for the labor market and the economy generally is still signaling a positive trend for the US. The darker message in the PMI data suggests otherwise, which means that one side or the other will soon give way and confirm the opposing outlook. Meantime, let’s review today’s claims data.
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The preliminary numbers for the US economic profile in February are flashing a warning sign, according to Markit’s sentiment data for the manufacturing and services sectors. It’s premature to assume the worst just yet, in part because the nearly complete set of numbers for January still point to growth. Ditto for the Chicago Fed’s January reading of the trend. By contrast, there’s only a handful of data points available at the moment for February. But the early signals for this month suggest that forward momentum will continue to suffer. We’ll know more in the days ahead as new data arrives. Meanwhile, the macro trend appears headed for more deterioration. While we’re waiting for fresh figures, let’s get up to speed on where we stand at the moment for February.
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● New US home sales tumble in Jan on big decline in West | AP
● US Services PMI dips below neutral 50 mark in Feb | Markit
● US mortgage applications fell 4.3% last week | MBA
● Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence index ticks up | ForexLive
● ECB: Private Sector Lending, Money Growth Accelerated In Jan | MNI
● Brazil Receives Junk Rating From Moody’s | RTT
● China stocks tumble more than 6% on Thursday | Reuters

Financial stress in the US continues to trend upward, according to four benchmarks published by Federal Reserve banks. The numbers overall suggest that stress in the financial system is at the highest level in three to four years, depending on the index. One benchmark—the Cleveland Financial Stress Index—is currently signaling “significant stress” for the first time since early 2012.
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● US Consumer Confidence Index falls to 7-month low in Feb | MarketWatch
● Existing home sales in US rise to 6-mo high in Jan | NY Times
● US home prices rise 5.7% in Dec: S&P/Case-Shiller | CNBC
● Richmond Fed: manufacturing activity contracts in Feb | 24/7 Wall St
● Gallup’s US economic confidence index ticked up last week | Gallup
● Saudi oil minister: Oil production cuts won’t happen | CNBC
● Fed’s Fischer: data suggests “labor market has continued to improve” | Fed

US monetary liquidity in January contracted at the sharpest rate in decades, according to the real (inflation-adjusted) year-over-year trend in base money (M0). It’s debatable if this alone is a warning sign for the macro outlook, but it’s an indicator that just went ballistic.
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