* Fed Chair Powell says keeping rates too high for too long threatens growth
* Financial stocks lead S&P 500 to new record high
* There’s a case for international investing for long-term investors
* China inflation remains soft in June, reflecting weak consumer demand
* China auto exports surge, helping offset sales slump at home
* Workers to strike indefinitely at South Korea tech giant Samsung
* US corporate bankruptcy filings in June rise above previous peak in 2020:
Judging by the analysis in some circles, a recession is a forgone conclusion. More cautious types argue that the expansion continues, but just barely, and that a formal recession will likely start at some point in the next several months. As usual, it’s impossible to fully discount any given forecast. But a review of a broad range of economic and financial data still leaves room for debate. Yes, macro risk is rising for the US, but the economy has not yet reached the tipping point.
* US consumers’ near-term inflation expectations fell again in June: NY Fed survey
* Slump in US housing market sales continues into a third year
* Air travel demand is surging but airline profits are not
* China electric vehicle giant BYD plans to build $1 billion plant in Turkey
* US small business sentiment ticks up in June but remains near multi-year low:
More investors are asking the question lately, in part because markets are seemingly defying gravity and ignoring various macro and geopolitical risks. Yet a broad reading on market trends has yet to signal trouble ahead, based on a review of ETF pairs. That doesn’t ensure the bull run will continue, but at this point the idea of calling a top and going defensive is based primarily on contrarian-based forecasting. Trend analysis, by comparison, still reflects optimism, rational or otherwise. Pick your poison.
* Hurricane Beryl strengthens, makes landfall along Texas coast
* Hefty debts, and hard chocies, await new leaders in Europe
* Big banks taking hits from falling commercial property prices
* US payrolls beat expectations for June, but revisions reflect slower growth
* Consumer demand is weakening, based on ISM survey data for June:
The Capital Spectator will be off the grid for the next several days, celebrating the July 4th holiday with an extended weekend at several undisclosed locations. The usual routine resumes on Monday, July 8. Happy Independence Day!
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at a conference on Tuesday, gave the doves most of what they wanted to hear. Although he said more evidence was needed to rationalize cutting interest rates, his overall message favored expectations that policy easing is on the near-term horizon.
* Fed Chair cites ‘progress’ on inflation but more confidence needed before cutting
* New US vehicle sales barely rose in the second quarter
* China services activity growth eases to 8-month low in June
* Eurozone production activity in June falls at fastest rate in 2024 to date
* US job openings unexpectedly rose in May:
The return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady in June after ticking higher for four straight months. GMI’s long-term forecast is unchanged at an annualized 7.1%, matching the estimate in the previous month, based on the average of three models (defined below). GMI is an unmanaged benchmark that holds all the major asset classes (except cash), according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies.
* Signs of cooling US labor market put Fed on alert
* Global manufacturing PMI indicates weak growth continued in June
* Eurozone headline inflation eases to 2.5% in June
* US construction spending posts unexpected decline in May
* US manufacturing sector contracts for third straight month via ISM survey:
