The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield well above its estimated “fair value,” based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 11 April 2024
* Investors adapt to a year that may witness no rate cuts
* Former Treasury Sec. Larry Summers says Fed may raise interest rates
* Has the business cycle been tamed? Some analysts are cautiously optimistic
* Rising oil prices could soon approach $100/bbl, BoA analyst predicts
* China’s consumer price inflation slowed more than expected in March
* US headline consumer inflation rises more than expected in March:
Momentum Remains Top-Equities-Factor Performer In 2024
Most slices of the US equity market continue to enjoy solid gains so far in 2024, but the momentum risk factor is still the upside outlier, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Apr. 9).
Risk-On Sentiment Persists, Defying Gravity — And Logic?
The list of things that could derail risk-on sentiment is long and varied, but at the moment the crowd has shown little enthusiasm for abandoning winning trades. That’s the message via several pairs of ETF proxies for profiling the appetite for risk — a review that reaffirms that bullish enthusiasm remains strong, based on prices through Apr. 8, 2024.
Macro Briefing: 9 April 2024
* Yellen won’t rule out new US tariffs on China’s green energy exports
* Uncertainty among economists continues to rise about prospects for rate cuts
* Short-Term consumer inflation expectations are stable at 3%: NY Fed survey
* Higher-for-longer interest rates could support US dollar
* Gold futures rise to yet another record high on Tuesday
* Rally in commodities reflects strong economy but also poses inflation risk:
Will Sticky Inflation Kill Prospects For Rate Cuts In 2024?
The consensus outlook is still projecting that the Federal Reserve will trim its target interest rate by the end of the year. But as economic growth endures and energy prices rise, market sentiment is pricing in fewer cuts. Meanwhile, some analysts are now saying the quiet part out loud: there may no rate cuts in 2024.
Macro Briefing: 8 April 2024
* Expectations for rate cuts in 2024 continue to fade
* US and China to hold financial shock exercises, says Treasury Sec. Yellen
* Oil-price rise is main threat to US economy, warns Moody’s economist
* Global pushback rising against China’s heavily subsidized factory sector
* US offers TSMC up to $6.6 billion for Arizona chip factories
* Gold trades at new record high ahead of US inflation report on Wednesday
* US nonfarm payrolls trend growth strengthens in March:
Book Bits: 6 April 2024
● The Investor’s Dilemma Decoded: Recognize Misinformation, Filter the Noise, and Reach Your Goals
Roger D. Silk and Katherine A. Silk
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Few aspects of life are as important as personal finance, as subject to your control, and as suffused with misinformation, noise, and confusion. Now, authors Dr. Roger D. Silk and Katherine A. Silk cut through that confusion and share with you the fruits of their knowledge and experience developed over the last 43 years. After completing a Ph.D. at Stanford where he studied at the cutting edge of finance theory, Dr. Silk’s experience includes managing billions of dollars at the World Bank and running a family office for one of the nation’s wealthiest families. For the last 26 years as CEO of the nation’s leading firm which advises high net worth individuals on financial and other aspects of their philanthropy, Dr. Silk has worked with countless individual investors and financial professionals. Katherine Silk, who holds a master’s in history from Stanford, adds a valuable and often-missing historical perspective.
US Q1 GDP Nowcast Highlights Growth Slowdown Persisting
US economic output is still on a path for a materially softer pace of growth in the first-quarter GDP report scheduled for release at the end of this month. The expansion will be strong enough to minimize recession risk, but the deceleration in the trend via GDP data will remain conspicuous for a second straight quarterly update.
Macro Briefing: 5 April 2024
* Treasury Sec. Yellen in China focusing on flood of cheap goods
* No rate cuts this year is a possibility, says Fed’s Kashkari, but…
* Goldman Sachs’ chief economist says no cuts in 2024 would be “very surprising”
* Global economic activity strengthens in March via PMI survey data
* US jobless claims climb to 2-month high but continue to forecast rising payrolls:
