Rising economic and political uncertainty has boosted everyone’s favorite precious metal in 2020. An ounce of gold was priced at just over $1,781 on Thursday (June 29), the highest since 2012, based on the continuous contract reported by Stockscharts.com. Year to date, gold is up 17% vs. a 5.5% loss for US stocks (S&P 500 Index).

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Trump was reportedly briefed on Russian bounties in Feb: NY Times
Senate Republicans focus on reports of Russian bounties: Politico
China enacts controversial national security law for Hong Kong: CNN
WHO chief: ‘worst is yet to come’ for coronavirus pandemic: MW
Coronavirus surge in some US states jeopardize reopening plans elsewhere: WSJ
Fed Chairman Powell: US economy faces new challenges due to Covid-19: BBG
China’s official PMI survey data: economic growth accelerated in June: SCMP
UK economy fell 2.2% in Q1–biggest decline in more than 40 years: Guardian
Japan’s industrial output tumbled 8.4% in May–fourth straight decline: NHK
Dallas Fed Mfg Index: mfg activity snaps back in June: Houston Chron
US Pending Home Sales Index rebounded sharply in May: Bloomberg

Amid news of rising coronavirus cases in the US and elsewhere last week, investors favored bonds at the expense of risk assets, based on a set of exchange traded funds representing the major asset classes for the trading week through June 26.

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HHS Secretary: ‘window is closing’ for battling Covid spread: Politico
Global death toll from Covid-19 rises above 500,000: USA Today
Russian plot to pay bounties to kill US troops reported months ago: NYT
Trump: US intelligence didn’t find Russian bounty info credible: WSJ
US withdrawal from WHO is a major setback for managing flu risk: STAT
US-China relationship continues to deteriorate: Bloomberg
China will impose new Hong Kong visa restrictions on some US citizens: Reuters
US consumer spending rebounded in May as incomes fell: Bloomberg
Consumer Sentiment Index for US rises for second month in June: MW

● The Long Good Buy: Analysing Cycles in Markets
Peter C. Oppenheimer
Essay by author via Business Insider
It’s interesting that over many decades, despite significantly different circumstances, economic and market cycles both seem to repeat themselves.
Over the past three decades we have seen the collapse of the Soviet Union, dramatic falls in inflation and interest rates, the emergence of the internet and the digital revolution, and yet, despite all of this, cycles continue to occur. There have been close to 30 major bear markets since 1880, and 13 in the post-war period, roughly one every six years.
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Update: the spike in the daily change for US Covid-19 deaths on 6/25 was due to NJ adding “1,854 probable deaths.”  Excluding this data addition shows the downtrend for US fatalities continues. Perhaps the total spike is a false alarm. Unclear for now. New numbers in the days/weeks ahead will provide clarification, for good or ill. (See revised chart at bottom of this post that doesn’t include the NJ-add data.)

Reports of rising coronavirus cases in the US, mostly due to increases in the South and West, have been downplayed by pointing out that the trend in fatalities has continued to fall. But that narrative suddenly vanished after a dramatic spike in new deaths for Thursday, June 25.
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US Covid-19 cases surge, setting new record for daily increase: Bloomberg
CDC: estimate of US Covid-19 cases is vastly underestimated: NBC
Fed imposes new restrictions on banks after stress tests: CNBC
Trump administration asks Supreme Court to invalidate Obamacare: Politico
US in struggling with five major crises: NY Times
World trade posts ‘unprecedented decline’ in April: CPB
US GDP fell 5.0% in Q1 in revised data–matching previous estimate: BEA
US durable goods orders rebounded sharply in May–up nearly 16%: MW
US jobless claims continue to rise at high rate: +1.48 million last week: CNBC

It’s a precarious leadership as a rebound in US coronavirus cases threaten to undermine the economic recovery, but for now it’s lonely at the top for growth and momentum as the lone equity factor strategies posting year-to-date gains, based on a set of exchange traded funds through June 24.

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Rise in US coronavirus cases is accelerating: WSJ
Three highest-population states–TX, CA, FL–are center of virus rebound: CNN
NY, NJ, CT issue quarantines on travelers from hot-zone virus states: CNN
Europe considers barring US visitors when it reopens borders: CNBC
Trump considers moving US troops from Germany to Poland: NPR
US economic recovery may be weakening as coronavirus cases rebound: BBG
Second lockdown unlikely in countries as virus rebounds, analysts predict: CNBC
US jobless claims expected to remain elevated in today’s update: MW
Daily change in US Covid-19 cases jumps to two-month high: JHU

The future’s unclear, especially when it comes to anticipating the trend for inflation. Or so it appears based on comparing the Treasury market’s implied forecast vs. recent estimates from several prominent investment and consultancy shops.

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