Daily Archives: Jun 4, 2020 at 07:37 am EDT

Is The Stock Market’s Optimism For Economic Recovery Valid?

The S&P 500 Index rose again on Wednesday (June 3), closing at a three-month high and paring the market’s drawdown to a relatively mild 7.8% decline — a shadow of the  nearly 34% drawdown at the height of the correction on March 23. Fueling the market’s rebound is the view that the worst of the coronavirus recession has passed and the recovery is coming into view. Is this wishful thinking? Or is the crowd’s implied forecast valid? The future, as always, remains unknown, but let’s consider the pros and cons of Mr. Market’s outlook for some perspective.

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Macro Briefing | 4 June 2020

US protests continue but subdued after after new charges in Floyd case: AP
Much of US govt’s coronavirus stimulus funds have been spent or committed: WSJ
Today’s US jobless claims set for slower rise but still painfully high: Reuters
European Central Bank set to ramp up stimulus program: CNBC
Will China weaponize its $1 trillion-plus hoard of US Treasuries? MW
Hedge funds prepared for second stock-market downturn: FT
Global economic downturn eases in May after record decline: IHS Markit
US factory orders continued to plunge in April: Reuters
Speed of US downturn in US services sector eased in May: IHS Markit
US private sector lost 2.76 million jobs in May: MW