Retail sales fell a modest 0.2% last month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Census Bureau reports. That’s the first monthly decline in nearly a year. Given the recent weakness in several economic reports, no one needs an excuse to see today’s retail sales news as a sign of trouble ahead. Fair enough, although there’s still room for debate. As troubling as the number du jour is, the broader context for retail sales remains quite positive. That may or may not be decisive, but it’s something.

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The update for U.S. retail sales for May arrives later this morning, offering a new data point for deciding if the economy’s slowing, and if so, by how much? Retail sales for April rose 0.5% (seasonally adjusted). The consensus forecast for May calls for a drop of 0.7%, according to Briefing.com. Here’s what analysts have been writing recently in anticipation of today’s retail sales report:
Four Scenarios For The US Retail Sales Report
ActionForex | June 14
Tuesday’s key report from the US will be the May retail sales figures. With consumer spending making up a majority of the economy, gauging US spending will give us an important read on the health of the recovery. Will May show consumers curtailing spending in May? We already know that consumers bought less cars in May, and therefore the headline retail sales number will be weak. Overall sales are expected to decline 0.3%, after a 0.5% gain in April.

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