Not good, not good. Initial jobless claims popped higher by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 429,000, the Labor Department reports. previous week’s claims were also revised up by 6,000 to 420,000. The surge in new claims in April has subsided, but the message seems to be that it’s subsided to a relatively elevated level vs. the trend that had been unfolding in this year’s first quarter. The stakes are high. Hanging in the balance is deciding if the May’s sharp slowdown in job creation was a one-time event or the start of materially weaker employment numbers in the months ahead.
Daily Archives: June 23, 2011
Downgrading Optimism
`In the wake of yesterday’s Federal Reserve press conference, at which Fed chairman Bernanke lowered growth expectations for the U.S., the Treasury market’s inflation outlook slipped to roughly the lowest level so far this year. Neither the Fed’s forecast for GDP or the latest inflation outlook was radically different, but the trend is worrisome. The implication is that while a recession isn’t imminent, the economy appears to be headed for a murky period of growth that’s sufficient to keep us out of a new cataclysm yet too slow to offer much in the way of repair and recovery.