With each new data point on weekly jobless claims, the theory that the recent jump in filings is temporary grows stronger. Last week’s claims fell 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 414,000, the lowest in a month and well below the recent peak of 478,000. That’s still too high to inspire much confidence about economic growth or the future of job creation, but it’s getting tougher to argue that a new recession is here based solely on this data series. True, this is just one number, but it’s an important leading indicator. If the economy is contracting, or set to contract, it’s likely that there’d be a clear sign in jobless claims. For now, the worst you can say is that the numbers in new claims are ambiguous.

Continue reading →

Chatter about a new recession ticked up yesterday after the Greek debt crisis took another turn for the worse. Yale economist Robert Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance, says there’s a “substantial” risk that the U.S. faces another downturn. There’s certainly plenty of support from the man on the street. Close to half of Americans think the U.S. is headed for a new recession, according to a freshly minted NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Perhaps, but the numbers suggest that this future isn’t fate at this point. If we’re looking at the economic and financial numbers, there’s still plenty of room for debate on the next phase for the business cycle.

Continue reading →