The IMF cut its forecast for global economic growth today, albeit slightly. The organization expects global GDP to rise this year by 4.3%, down from its previous 4.4% estimate. “The global economy, hit by slowdowns in Japan and the United States, is expected to reaccelerate in the second half of the year, but growth remains unbalanced and concerted policy action by major economies is needed to avoid lurking dangers,” the IMF advises.

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Worries Grow About Breadth of Debt Crisis
The New York Times | June 17
Two Deutsche Bank strategists, Jim Reid and Colin Tan, warned in a report on Thursday that this Greek crisis had echoes of the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank in September 2008, an event that plunged the financial system into chaos and required the commitment of trillions of dollars in government support to stave off another Great Depression. “Everyone in every corner of global financial markets should be keeping a very close eye on upcoming Greek events,” they wrote. “The period is resembling the buildup to the Lehman collapse where, although markets were increasingly nervous, virtually everyone expected a last-minute buyer.” One ugly scene that some analysts are imagining involves a default by Greece leading to losses inflicted on banks in other European countries that own large amounts of Greek debt. The European Central Bank, too, is a big holder of debt, and analysts said in the event of a default it might need to be recapitalized, another blow to confidence.Those losses could then cascade to the United States because the American and European banking systems are so interlocked, lending billions of dollars to each other every day.

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