Private nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 178,000 in tomorrow’s April update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. The projected gain is substantially higher than the reported increase for March and slightly above a pair of consensus forecasts for April, based on two surveys of economists.
Daily Archives: May 2, 2013
Unemployment Filings Fell To A New Post-Recession Low Last Week
Initial jobless claims dropped again last week, slipping to a new five-year low. The news is an upbeat counterpoint to the weak economic numbers released earlier this week. New filings for unemployment benefits retreated to a seasonally adjusted 324,000 for the week through April 27, the lowest since January 2008. It’s been easy to interpret recent data as a sign that the economy’s stumbling again, perhaps fatally, but today’s release looks like a statistical stay of execution, if only for a day.
The Softer Side Of Inflation Expectations
Last week I noted that the widening spread between the stock market and the Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast looked troubling. A week later, it looks a bit more troubling, primarily because inflation expectations continue to fall. In turn, that’s a clue for thinking that equity prices will follow unless the inflation outlook stabilizes.