Daily Archives: May 8, 2013

A Reality Check For Two Employment Indicators

If the US was slipping into a recession, would the evidence be conspicuous in the labor market data? History says that’s a good bet. In fact, it’s inconceivable that the country could go into a macro hissy fit without a sharp downturn in jobs creation. Anything’s possible, of course, but bolts of unprecedented behavior from the blue are a rare breed in economics. That’s good news these days because the trend still looks encouraging on this front. To be precise, the so-called establishment survey from the Labor Department continues to hold up, providing a relatively steady year-over-year growth rate of just under 2%. The household survey, by contrast, looks relatively wobbly, although this series is now looking a bit stronger too.

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