A markets-based profile of US economic conditions suggests that business cycle risk remains low. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed yesterday (May 28) at 15.6%–well above the danger zone of 0% and within the roughly 10%-to-17% range that’s prevailed so far in 2013. When MMRI falls under 0%, recession risk is elevated; readings above 0% equate with economic growth.
Daily Archives: May 29, 2013
A Virtuous Cycle For Housing Prices & Consumer Confidence?
The business cycle bears took another hit yesterday. Home prices rose at a 10.9% annual pace in the March update of the 20-city composite of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. That’s the fastest rate of increase in seven years. Meanwhile, consumer confidence rose to a five-year high this month, the Conference Board reports. Two data points alone are suspect, but looking at yesterday’s numbers in context with a broader review of economic and financial indicators suggests once again that the economy will continue to expand at a modest rate for the foreseeable future.