Industrial production fell more than expected last month, sliding 0.5% in April. That’s a bit deeper than economists projected, and it’s an even bigger drop relative to the modest gain that my econometric modeling suggested. But based on today’s release, it’s obvious that April was a rough month for the industrial sector. The worst, in fact, since last August. The manufacturing component of industrial activity didn’t fare much better, slipping 0.4% last month. That’s the second consecutive monthly retreat for manufacturing, according to this series. It’s also the first time that manufacturing in this data set slumped for two months running since 2009.
Daily Archives: May 15, 2013
US Housing Starts: April 2013 Preview
Housing starts are expected to total 1.013 million in April in tomorrow’s update, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). That’s a modest decline vs. the previously reported total of 1.036 million for March. Meanwhile, The Capital Spectator’s projected gain for April is well above the numbers in several consensus forecasts drawn from surveys of economists.
Surprising Asset Allocation Results That Really Aren’t Surprising
Monday’s article on the average to above-average results that usually describe a passive allocation to all the major asset classes brought charges of foul play from some quarters. A few critics said I was cherry picking the data; one claimed that I was intentionally manipulating the numbers so as to engineer a favorable result for a benchmark of broad asset allocation vs. the universe of its actively managed equivalent. How, they wondered, could a passive strategy that holds everything compare so favorably on a regular basis? In fact, it would be surprising—impossible, in fact—if the results were otherwise.