A markets-based profile of US economic conditions suggests that business cycle risk remains low. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed yesterday (May 9) at 16.3%–well above the danger zone of 0% and within the 10%-to-16% range that’s prevailed so far in 2013. When MMRI falls under 0%, recession risk is elevated; readings above 0% equate with economic growth.
Daily Archives: May 10, 2013
US Retail Sales: April 2013 Preview
Monday’s scheduled report on US retail sales for April is projected to remain unchanged vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That compares with a 0.4% decline reported by the Census Bureau for March. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average projection for April is slightly above a consensus forecast based on a recent survey of economists.