Housing starts are expected to total 889,000 in tomorrow’s update for August, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection represents a slight decline vs. the previously reported 896,000 total for July. By contrast, several consensus forecasts drawn from surveys of economists anticipate a moderate rise in August housing starts vs. the previous month.
Daily Archives: September 17, 2013
Macro-Markets Risk Index | 9.17.2013
The US economic trend remains well above levels that signal imminent danger for the business cycle, based on a markets-based profile of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at 9.3% on Monday, September 16—a level that suggests that business cycle risk remains low. Although the latest 9.3% value is near the lowest readings so far in 2013, it’s still well above the danger zone of 0%. If MMRI falls under 0%, that would be a sign that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply a bias for economic growth.