The big, bad revision that’s supposed to correct last week’s computer glitch in calculating initial jobless claims didn’t arrive in today’s update. Maybe next week. Meantime, today’s release continues to show a labor market that’s laying offer fewer workers through time. Maybe it’s all an illusion, in which case prepare to be dragged back into reality in the near future. But let’s engage in an experiment and consider the data offered as a reasonable proxy for what’s actually unfolding.

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The Federal Reserve’s surprising decision yesterday to delay the start of slowing its asset purchases reflects continued wariness about the outlook for the economy. Although the central bank recognizes “that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace,” the Federal Open Market Committee explained in its statement that it “decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained.” In fact, the evidence is compelling for arguing that the latest profile of economic activity continues to suggest that business cycle risk is low. That’s the message in today’s update of the Economic Trend (ETI) and Momentum indexes (EMI). Both benchmarks, which measure the broad trend in the economy via 14 economic and financial indicators, reflect values that are well above their respective danger zones. That’s a sign for anticipating that the NBER will not declare August as the start of a new recession.

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