The Hudson Institute’s new “Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers” was published yesterday. Among the participants is yours truly. My contribution to inquiring how my blogging counterparts view the world of macro and related subjects these days is asking this esteemed group to rate business cycle risk over the next few months. Most of the responses fall into the range of “neutral/balanced probability” to “highly unlikely.” On that note, last month’s US Economic Profile on these pages estimated the risk closer to the “highly unlikely” category in the here and now (“nowcasting”), and nothing much has changed in my internal weekly updates (I’ll publish a new monthly profile next week).

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So-called frontier markets—the smaller and less-liquid slice of emerging markets—are attracting a lot of attention these days, inspiring the question: Should I add this slice of the world’s equity markets to my asset allocation? Maybe, but a lot depends on how a fund defines “frontier.” No less important is the current structure of your existing portfolio.

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