The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to increase slightly to -0.11 in Monday’s update for August (scheduled for release on September 23), according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. In the previous release for July, the three-month average was estimated at -0.15. Values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate, CFNAI’s three-month average is projected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with economic expansion, albeit at a below-trend rate.