Today’s income and spending report looks encouraging. Disposable personal income (DPI) rose 0.5% last month vs. July—the strongest monthly comparison since February. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) also increased in August, albeit at a lesser pace. Nonetheless, PCE gained 0.3% last month, up a bit from July’s advance and generally in line with expectations. And as we’ll see, the year-over-year comparisons improved again too. Overall, it’s fair to say that income and spending are both trending positive these days, offering a bit more support for thinking positively for the economic outlook in the near term.
Daily Archives: September 27, 2013
Macro-Markets Risk Index: 9.1% | 9.27.2013
The positive momentum in the US economic trend has been decelerating this year, but remains well above levels that signal imminent danger for the business cycle, based on a markets-based profile of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at 9.1% yesterday, September 26—a level that suggests that business cycle risk remains low. Although the latest 9.1% value is near the lowest readings so far in 2013, it’s still well above the danger zone of 0%. If MMRI falls under 0%, that would be a sign that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply a bias for economic growth.